This yields a population IFR estimate of something like 0.16% with approximate CI 0.12-0.31.
This is puzzling. With 0.15% of New York City's population dead from COVID19, that seems to be a very hard lower bound on IFR. Realistically, 0.7-1.0% seems more likely for NYC.
What, if anything, am I missing?
IFR 20-69 = deaths 20-69 / cases 20-69.
IFR pop = all deaths / all cases.
Assume cases are uniform across age.
The paper gives us total deaths as well as deaths 17-69.
This gives us a 5.4-fold increase for a population IFR of 0.44%, CI (0.32-0.83%), closer in line with what I would have expected.
Consider this your disclaimer for the entire thread.
tl;dr conclusion: the population IFR is several times higher than the age 17-69 IFR, so the Danish study here is closer in line with the results out of New York than the results from the Santa Clara and LA county studies.
Maybe there's still an error somewhere.😀