@JudeanPF I'm still figuring it out in my head, and don't have the whole thing yet, mostly because we don't know what Bibi has in mind specifically, but I'll jot down here some of my thoughts.
@JudeanPF 1. The status quo stinks, and it is the best thing we have. But is it sustainable over 100 years? Bibi is one of the few politicians who thinks a century ahead.
@JudeanPF 2. Israel has no peace partner, and won't for the foreseeable future. Whatever Israel does for the long term must be unilateral and strategic.
@JudeanPF 3. Trump might lose in November so if Israel is going to do any dramatic moves to shake things up, now is the only time to do it, while the US can deflect the outrage.
@JudeanPF 4. Bibi is on the record of supporting extending sovereignty - but also on the record against having Israel rule over a hostile Arab Palestinian population. If you look at his Jordan Valley map, Jericho is excluded (even as it is surrounded.)
@JudeanPF So my guess is that Bibi is intending to draw a line, even if it is a very jagged line, of what would eventually be the permanent borders of Israel. The implication is that everything outside the line is no longer in play.
@JudeanPF That's the part no one wants to talk about. But it may be the key to the whole thing.
If Israel says it formally has no interest in sovereignty over Areas A and B - for example - then the demographic problem that everyone warns about is no longer an issue.
If Israel says it formally has no interest in sovereignty over Areas A and B - for example - then the demographic problem that everyone warns about is no longer an issue.
@JudeanPF Let the Palestinians declare a state there. Let the world recognize it. It is no longer a big deal. Israel is washing its hands of control of problematic areas (is my guess.)
If I'm right, expect a major redeployment of IDF soldiers and border police away from riot areas.
If I'm right, expect a major redeployment of IDF soldiers and border police away from riot areas.
@JudeanPF Reduce friction, offer citizenship to Arabs in Area C who want it. And many of the real arguments against "occupation" become muted.
@JudeanPF And, if I am right, this would make Israel's Gulf Arab allies happier as well, because it starts ending the conflict one way or the other.
@JudeanPF There will always be people screaming about supposed Israeli crimes, but they will never go away. This could address the legitimate problems of Israel being in places it is not wanted, while ensuring security for her people.
@JudeanPF That's my guess, anyway. If it is stupid I don't think too many will follow this thread so I'm relatively safe :)
