Thread by @bopinion

🇸🇪Sweden’s hands-off approach to lockdown has earned it a pat on the back from the WHO.

But like so many stories of national exceptionalism in this pandemic, praising the Swedes now is debatable and premature trib.al/NhhzLZo

Sweden’s lockdown certainly looks different to those in other countries:

🚫Large public gatherings are banned
🍺Restaurants, bars and schools are open
👍🏻Social distancing is encouraged, rather than enforced trib.al/NhhzLZo

But, as President Trump pointed out in a tweet this week, loose lockdown measures have come at a cost.

Sweden’s death count compares poorly to its neighbors:

🇳🇴Norway: 210
🇩🇰Denmark: 452
🇸🇪Sweden: 2,586 trib.al/NhhzLZo

Taking population into account, @LionelRALaurent writes that Sweden has suffered more deaths per million people than the U.S. (although deaths aren't always counted in the same way).

Sweden has been hit with “very high” excess deaths too trib.al/NhhzLZo

We don’t know what other nations might have gone through if they’d followed the Swedish model -- France estimates its own lockdown saved 60,000 lives.

We also don’t know how much immunity has been acquired by the Swedes trib.al/NhhzLZo

Sweden’s coronavirus journey hasn’t been exceptional. Like other countries, it’s experienced:

➡️Surge in care home deaths
➡️Lack of systematic testing
➡️Equipment shortages trib.al/NhhzLZo

Things might have been even worse without Sweden’s demographic and cultural defenses.

More than half the country lives in single-person households and working from home is common trib.al/NhhzLZo

But Swedes are becoming increasingly unconcerned about keeping their distance as time goes on, as images of packed restaurants indicate.

At the same time, migrant workers in the country are being infected disproportionately trib.al/NhhzLZo

Sweden may well turn out to be an economic winner: It will probably experience a shorter and less severe slowdown than its European neighbors.

But whether that’s much of a win for an economy where trade accounts for 89% of GDP is doubtful trib.al/NhhzLZo

As we approach a turning point in the crisis, it’s tempting to look back and single out winners as the model to follow.

But we don’t know what’s going to happen next. None of us has lived through it yet. And that includes Sweden trib.al/NhhzLZo