Thread by @JohnRuddick2

1. Australia’s federal Health Minister Greg Hunt tells us:

“The early scenarios we saw were absolutely real. If Australia had done nothing the virus would have ripped through the Australian community and led to massive human loss.”

2. Paul Kelly in The Australian tells us if we doubt that view we are ‘malicious’ and belong to the 'populist right.'

Golly. Why the vitriol? Is the establishment defensive over claims they have over-reacted and unnecessarily harmed the economy?

3. A month ago we were told Australia faced 150,000 virus deaths and today we have less than 100. Is that success because of the lockdown?

Let’s soberly consider the data.

Since 90% + of nations are in lockdown it’s hard to compare but we do have a few valuable outliers.

4. Let’s start with Sweden. Britain embarked on the ‘herd immunity’ approach but jettisoned it within days but Sweden has persisted. Brazil’s president is championing herd immunity but his state governors have rebelled and mostly enforced one anyway.

5. Sweden has light touch government mandated social restrictions but has mostly trusted its citizens to social distance. Sweden can fairly be compared to its neighbour Norway – same climate, same lifestyle, same economy … except Norway has half Sweden’s population.

6. Norway has had 210 deaths and Sweden 2,653. On a per capita basis Sweden’s fatality rate is six times higher than Norway’s … which at face value is alarmingly higher.

7. Sweden’s many critics a month ago predicted what Minister Hunt has declared would be our fate with no lockdown – ‘massive human loss.’

That has not happened but the fatality rate is still high compared to Norway.

8. The Swedes soberly anticipated this outcome in advance. Their thinking was short-term pain for long-term gain. While the rest of Europe has barely any herd immunity the Swedes almost certainly do … so the chances of a second wave in Sweden is far lower than its neighbours

9. Sweden could easily end up with a far lower fatality rate because its population is largely immune. Plus the Swedes haven’t strangled their economy in the process.

But more significant is that without a crude lockdown the Swedish fatality rate is in sharp decline.

10. Minister Hunt says we would have had ‘massive human loss’ without the lockdown. So why is the Swedish fatality rate not only not going exponential as predicted … but in sharp decline? We should be at least curious if not celebrate Sweden's lockdown-free decline in fatalites

11. Let’s look at the three Asian nations which resisted a lockdown. Taiwan has a similar population to Australia, has had no lockdown (bar the frail elderly) … and has had six fatalities.

12. Singapore had a mild lockdown, lifted it and we were told fatalities would skyrocket. Singapore has a population of 5.6m and 16 fatalities.

13. Japan has just emerged from its flu season. It has had no lockdown, a population 5x larger than Australia … and 455 deaths (much lower than Australia on a pro capita basis).

14. Let’s go to the other extreme – New Zealand. A month and a half ago Kiwis were told, ‘you will stay at the house you sleep in tonight and you will not leave.’ Aussies have been drive-in at McDonalds but Kiwis couldn’t even do that till this week.

15. New Zealand has a fifth of our population and 20 fatalities … which is slightly more than Australia on a per capita basis. If Minister Hunt is correct why hasn’t New Zealand seen noticeably fewer fatalities?

16. Minister Hunt has little basis for claiming the lockdown has averted a catastrophe. Is it political spin to defend the government against the charge that it has inflicted unnecessary economic damage on the economy?

17. But, but, but … what about the US? The US flu season officially ends on 30 April each year. In the 2018 flu season 80,000 Americans died of the flu and we didn’t hear a word about it outside of medical journals.

18. The COVID fataltiy rate is 65,766 and now in decline. US flu deaths this season has plummeted so it’s pretty obvious that many of those who were going to die of the flu have instead died of COVID.

19. What would have happened if the US had followed the herd immunity strategy? Who knows but worst case it would have doubled. If the US didn’t shrug about the 2018 flu figures did they really need such a severe lockdown for COVID?

20. If the US had a Swedish style light-touch approach it would likely have given the population protection against a second wave.

Meanwhile 30,000,000 Americans have become unemployed in just six weeks. Nothing in history compares with that data.

21. Recessions result in increased in crime, bad health outcomes, family breakdown, suicide and a general sense of personal and national despair. A depression is unlikely but far from impossible and that would only magnify the carnage – so why risk it?

22. The death toll from a recession could easily be far more significant than if Australia had pursued a strategy of a light touch approach with a few sharp, short localised lockdowns but generally soldier on with voluntary social distancing and quarantining the vulnerable.

23. If we had pursued that strategy we may have had higher fatalities in the short-term but developed a herd immunity, avert the threat of this going on and on and end up with less fatalities in the long term.

24. Plus we wouldn’t have had to jack up our public debt or risk serious harm to our economy.

We won’t know for another a year or two but this contrary view should be on the table and not maligned.