It's not just the IMHE model, but nearly all models. (1/x) nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The UT model, which won a fair amount of praise as an alternative to IMHE, projects with 100% certainty that we have passed the peak of deaths from COVID-19, though a new peak was reached as recently as three days ago.
Yesterday, the CDC removed the IMHE from the page it maintains aggregating COVID-19 projections. The nine models that remain are all focused on short-term forecasting, not long-term projections—so much so that the CDC aggregate only extends to May 15, barely two weeks from now.
Even in that timeframe, the models project some significant number of additional deaths. But a more detailed survey of five major models produced by the New York Times last week showed that each projected a quite steady, if not precipitous decline: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This despite the fact that deaths have held roughly steady for two weeks, at about 2,000 each day, and despite the fact that parts of the country are about to "reopen."
How much citizens will cooperate is an open question, but here is one projection for what even a "midway" return to normal would look like.
Through April the projections kept shrinking, producing a wave of “good news” updates and a whole narrative among skeptics that the projections were criminally alarmist all along. But the death figures have simply not cooperated with that optimism. (x/x) nymag.com/intelligencer/…
