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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths:
Today: 1,158
Yesterday: 1,651
One week ago (4/26): 1,095

Newly reported cases:
T: 26K
Y: 30K
4/26: 27K

Newly reported tests:
T: 237K
Y: 265K
4/26: 206K

Positive test rate:
T: 11%
Y: 11%
4/26: 13%
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody should necessarily feel too optimistic about the lower-than-usual number of reported deaths today, since reporting is often slower on weekends. Note that last Sunday was a slow day too but was then followed by 2K+ on Tues/Wed/Thurs.
The positive test rate continues to S L O W L Y decline but that's really a blend of a fairly clear decline in some places, and no decline (or an ↑) in others. It remains important to account for testing volume—otherwise you're basically punishing states for doing more testing.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,760
Yesterday: 2,746
One week ago (5/1): 1,739

Newly reported cases
T: 28K
Y: 28K
5/1: 33K

Newly reported tests
T: 303K
Y: 319K
5/1: 297K

Positive test rate
T: 9%
Y: 9%
5/1: 11%
Some positives in here. Tests above 300K for the second day in a row, so this is the most tests in any consecutive 2-day period.

The positive test rate has been below 10% for 4 out of the last 5 days after having peaked at ~20% nationally (the peak was around ~16% without NY).
I think the "things are getting worse" narrative got a little ahead of itself in certain ways this week, in part by not accounting for increased testing... HOWEVER... if there are problems caused by reduced social distancing, it is likely too early to see them in the data yet.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 2,746
Yesterday: 1,949
One week ago (4/30): 2,138

Newly reported cases:
T: 28K
Y: 25K
4/30: 29K

Newly reported tests:
T: 319K
Y: 242K
4/30: 230K

Positive test rate:
T: 9%
Y: 10%
4/30: 13%
Both the # of deaths and the # of tests are new daily highs, although there are caveats about both.

Test numbers can bounce around a bit from day to day because of inconsistent reporting; some states report negative tests in batches:

Meanwhile, the deaths number partly reflects NY reporting about ~700 nursing home deaths that it hadn't confirmed originally, but which may not have occurred all that recently. There may be more of this in the future in NY and other states.

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Experts expect around 250,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of the year, though with a huge range of possibilities between roughly 120,000 and 1.2 million. fivethirtyeight.com/features/infec…
This is actually almost identical to what experts thought in the same survey a month ago, when they expected 260,000 deaths, though with a slightly wider range (70K to 1.7 million). fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-…
There are a lot of swings back in forth in the mood of media coverage around coronavirus, depending on e.g. which models get highlighted. The fact is, though, we've come pretty close to consensus estimates. Most experts thought it would be bad, and it has been.
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