Thread by @mattuthompson

Sir Patrick Vallance has told MPs that genome sequencing suggests the UK got many of its coronavirus cases from Europe, rather than China.

"There was a big influx of cases probably from Italy and Spain in early March, seeded right across the country."

There's been some concern that the Government keeps saying it is "following the scientific advice" but yet that advice isn't published.

Sir Patrick said he'd like SAGE to get into a "regular rhythm" of publishing its papers, perhaps "every couple of weeks if we can".

Sir Patrick Vallance on the importance of social distancing:

"Spending 1 minute at 2m [from another person] is about same risk as spending 6 seconds at 1m.

The risk at 1m is 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at 2m"

Some studies show why the virus might be devastating care homes, according to Dr Jenny Harries, England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer.

She says there is evidence that "the presentation of early symptoms not as clear in elderly people" making it harder to catch virus early.

Most interesting thing emerging from this hearing is tension between Govt's "following the science" mantra, and how Sir Patrick describes the role of SAGE.

He emphasises that SAGE provides guidance, options, with any related uncertainties.

Ministers still make political choices

Why send younger children back to school first?

Sir Patrick says they are less likely to spread the virus, "not for any reasons of biology, but for reasons of contact and pattern between households."

I.e. younger children don't run around and visit each others houses so much.

Combine that with evidence that children are less at risk of serious disease, and weaker evidence that they may be less likely to pass it on for reasons of biology, and there is a plausible justification for younger children to return to school early.

Dr Jenny Harries again trots out the line that it is difficult to make international death comparisons because it's early, and data is collected differently.

I mean, yes. But no amount of bean counting differences accounts for the gulf between us and Germany or South Korea.

Dr Harries on why South Korea may be different:

They had "focussed outbreaks, identifiable local hot areas rather than sustained community transmission right across the country."

Really? They're right beside China. Nothing to do with their widespread testing regime?

What could we have done differently?

Sir Patrick Vallance: "Probably in the early phases if we’d managed to ramp up testing capacity quicker, it would have been beneficial. It’s clear you need lots of testing for this."

Should we have stopped more flights?

Sir Patrick: "The idea you could control this by stopping travel from one place doesn’t work. We got imports from all over the place. Early on the advice was you either need to stop all travel or it’s not worth trying to do."

Sir Patrick on travel bans: "The answer is not to stop travel anywhere but to ensure that as people come back you have appropriate systems to isolate and protect and make sure they are following the same rules as the rest of the country."