Thread by @dugalira

Answers to two questions on Yes Bank getting clearer:

1) What was the real quality of the bank's loan/investment book?

2) Will depositors keep the faith?

26.63% of corporate loan book is bad (after write-offs).
- Corporate NPA: Rs 31,731 cr
- Total NPA: Rs 32,878 cr
- SMA 1 + SMA 2: Rs 11,102 cr

If you assume much of SMA 1+ SMA 2 is corporate (going by current NPA proportions), about Rs 42.599 cr of corporate book is stressed.

The above is after write-offs in Q4. If you take Dec'19 numbers, about Rs 50,000 crore in corporate accounts were stressed.

That worked out to 38% of the corporate loan book was bad.

The investment part of the book was even worse.

- The bank disclosed that 67% (yes!) of the investment book has been classified as a non performing investment.
- Of the remaining, only 1% is AAA. 24% is AA, 11% is BBB & below.

Now onto the question of depositors:

- Total deposits in Sept: Rs 2.09 lakh crore
- Total deposits on March 5 (when moratorium was announced): Rs 1.37 lakh crore
- Total deposits on March 31: Rs 1.05 lakh crore
- Total deposits on May 2: Rs 1.02 lakh crore

What did depositors behave?

- Retail term deposits dropped to Rs 39,000 crore in Q4 FY20 from Rs 58,500 crore in Q4 FY19. A drop of 33%

- Corporate term deposits fell to Rs 31,400 crore from Rs 92,300 crore a year ago. A steeper drop of 66%

-Current account deposits fell 67% YoY, savings account deposits by 60% YoY
-- Term deposits fell 49% YoY.
- CDs surged 348% YoY

Ok this turned into a thread instead of a couple of tweets. But thread over now.

My point:
1) Yes Bank's corporate loan book quality is out in the open now. And it was terrible.
2) Depositors have retreated to safer options but pace of outflows slowed after the revival scheme.

Sorry one correction: 63% of the investment book is NPI.