Thread by @delong

@jholbo1 In utilitarian order of desirability:

Plan A: stomp the virus immediately via trace-&-test-&-quarantine

Plan B: after the virus gets established, lockdown until R is low enough & maintain lockdown long enough that you can then stomp the virus via trace-&-test-&-quarantine 1/

@jholbo1 Plan C: after the virus gets established, take measures to achieve enough social distancing that get R less than one so that most of the cases are pushed out beyond vaccine invention

Plan D: after the virus gets established, take measures to achieve enough social distancing 2/

@jholbo1 that your health-care system does not collapse and your mortality rate does not rise from 1% to 4% as the virus makes its way through the population

Plan E: after the virus gets established, just let it rip & watch your health-care system collapse under the load

Plan F: Try 3/

@jholbo1 for Plan D, but fail, and watch the virus go for Plan E while you suffer not just 4% mortality but also incur the cost of moderate social distancing

Plan G: Try to for Plan C, but fail, and watch the virus go for Plan E while you suffer not just 4% mortality but also incur 4/

@jholbo1 the cost of severe social distancing

Plan G: Try for Plan B, , but fail, and watch the virus go for Plan E while you suffer not just 4% mortality but also incur the costs of a long but unsuccessful lockdown

Plan H: Elect Donald Trump president and give him the keys, so that 5/

@jholbo1 no coherent plan is implemented at all, and a lot of resources are wasted achieving next-to-nothing before the virus elects to go for Plan E.

Is that clear?

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