Thread by @BNW_Ben

Yesterday, the @CSIRO released its update to the Gencost report.

There is lots of good material and information in this report - about wind and solar.

But there remains an effort for SMR nuclear which is worse than useless.

publications.csiro.au/publications/#…

Read this report and all it's supporting information about SMR and you will come away dumber than you went in. It's obvious the effort has tried to accomodate @BNW_Aus 's detailed submission, but the process can't actually bring itself to say 'we were wrong'. This is poor.

I will write in detail this week, but to recap. While throwing doubt on the merit of validated vendor estimates, it keeps a capex of $16 k/kW - a consultants fabrication for a reactor no one can define. The Mystery Reactor!

The Mystery Reactor plunges in price over 5 years from about 2030 to less than half the $16 k/kW - which is a decent admission that the opening number is complete bunkum.

Just use a reasonable number, and if there is no number, leave it blank.

The Mystery Reactor might now be with us from about 2025 onward under one scenario (Diverse Technology). That's an improvement and closer to the truth we gave them. But if it's true for one scenario, it would be true for all.

The Mystery Reactor still has a mysterious operating profile - only 40-80% load factor, though it could technically offer 95%. That assumption, wholly imposed by the process, sends the LCOE through the roof.

Imagine someone made the Mysterious 95% Load Factor Wind Farm and they went "...nah. We'll assume you'll operate at 40%-80% only, and tell the word your cost on that basis".

The economic life has been dropped from 60 to 30 years.

The build time has been dropped from 5 to 3 years.

You can only see this in the tables in the rear.

Section 3.2.7 makes NO reference to these changes, which are clearly driven by input from the @BNW_Aus submission.

They are making little changes everywhere without declaring or explaining them. Exactly the transparency we recommended in the @BNW_Aus submission we are NOT getting.

@CSIRO it's ok to be wrong. It's not really ok to pretend you were right while slipping in the changes.

We still have the numbers that will be the headline for the national conversation until 2025: SMR is $258-$338 MWh, a 'don't bother' price which is a total fabrication.

@BNW_Aus takes full credit that the 2030 price now has a low end of $129 MWh, a fall of nearly $100.

That low end price is still using an imposed 80% cf.

We cannot plan for a good clean energy transition if we have big clumsy, prejudiced hands on the scales.

To understand this better, read the @BNW_Aus submission in full.

Full length article to come.

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