Possible Mortality Range of Covid-19 by time reach Herd Immunity. Don't know what % required to reach but most estimates 60-70%. Don't know % W/antibodies today. Varies greatly by region. But if you believe 70% Herd required and 10% w/antibody (Ex.) then u can get a number 
For AZ, current % showing positive in Antibody testing is 3.5%, so even less than 5%. It's unlikely in any scenario that there are more than 10-15% w/Antibodies in AZ. Green number represents best case mortality by time reach Herd, and Red Number represents pessimistic estimate
For USA in total, I slide the range over to the right on the matrix, as the assumption is that densely populated areas in the east have higher % of people w/Antibodies. So this method gives you Est. of 238K-555K deaths by time we reach herd immunity
Caveat 1:
There are over a million unresolved active cases. I have no way of reconciling the potential lag in testing numbers with the lag in death counts that will ultimately come out of those active cases
There are over a million unresolved active cases. I have no way of reconciling the potential lag in testing numbers with the lag in death counts that will ultimately come out of those active cases
Caveat 2: Based on "excess deaths" data it's almost certain there is an undercount of deaths due to SarsCov2. This is world wide, not just USA.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
economist.com/graphic-detail…
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
economist.com/graphic-detail…
So there could be many more deaths to add in to the current death totals, but that higher number of current deaths would be going up against the existing number of people with Antibodies. In other words, these are still conservative estimates.
We don't know exactly how effective immunity will be or if mutations will render future vaccines ineffective. We've already seen evidence the strain the circulated in Italy is different than the one that circulated in China.
For all of above reasons I believe our best hope to contain death and/or long term illness and carryover effects is through therapeutics. Whatever resources are going into clinical studies to figure out what drugs might help needs to increase tenfold over night.
Oh, and in the meantime....please......
Wear a mask in public. Protect others, and by doing so, protect your friends and relatives too.
Wear a mask in public. Protect others, and by doing so, protect your friends and relatives too.
@threadreaderapp unroll
