Thread by @plaforscience

@MLevitt_NP2013
Open thread:
First of all we want to thank you so much for your struggle for science.
As I want to be short, I'll tell you what our team, just an educate group of citizens in Spain, have done: an ACCURATE RECONSTRUCTIVE MODEL of infection from average death time.

We know the daily data of dead and we know from scientific studies the time from infection to death quasi Gaussian curve, both precise, we can calculate when people who effectively died were infected. There is a known percentile of infected who die for each day after infection.

There is a known percentile of infected who die for each day after infection. As we add those data for each day during epidemic outbreak, we can know the EXACT number of infections, with a dead output, for everyday.

The REAL curve. As the dead are a fix proportion of total infections, we know the tendencies of the general infection for sure. You'll need the correct mortality to have the real number of infections. But we know the exact SHAPE for the curve, when it flattens and reaches Rt=1.

I'm sending to you the Spanish curve. The red line marks the day we get locked at home. The flatten and peak of the curve is natural, and clearly previous to any lockdown or restriction measures. Twelve and seven days respectively.

There's a known error margin:as it depends on future day's deads there's big error for today, but becomes smaller, and irrelevant in statistical terms as you get further back in time. 45 days ago you don't get changes in trends even is l introducing next days' aberrant death data

We haven't see it around, and it proves from a different scientific approach, the natural tendencies of the curve you are signalling.
Hope you can use that to help you in your brave struggle for science.

Once again, thank you @MLevitt_NP2013 for your time, and specially for your COURAGE in this very very dark times.

Thanks!!!

Even Mr @MLevitt_NP2013 gets insulted just to make good science!
You're a courage example, please keep with your good work!