Pandemic hospitality theory. It's going to be like adverse selection. I am not going to a restaurant/pub/club/concert because I think those places will select for idiots who don't appreciate the risk or care about the externality of infection.
My and everyone else's not going will make those places even more risky to visit than if they were full of randomly selected individuals failing to socially distance adequately.
This makes the more cautious of us even less likely to go as the odds make it riskier. And so on.
Against this, there will be people who know they have had it and therefore can't infect me. But also people who think they did but haven't.
