Thread by @ollybarratt

From the UK govt's just-published Covid-19 roadmap. Various details:

'Tragically, however, the number of deaths so far this year is 37,151 higher than the average for 2015 to 2019.8'

UK govt:

"This is not a short-term crisis. It is likely that COVID-19 will circulate in the human population long-term, possibly causing periodic epidemics."

"The Government must prepare for the challenges that the winter flu season will bring."

On winter flu season:

'This will have wide-ranging effects, from impeding any efforts to trace the virus (because so many people without COVID-19 are likely to have symptoms that resemble COVID-19), to increasing the demand for hospital beds.'

"If the data suggests the virus is spreading again, the Government will have to tighten restrictions, possibly at short notice."

From the UK govt's new covid19 strategy document:

"The virus is unlikely to die out spontaneously; nor is it likely to be eradicated. Only one human infectious disease - smallpox - has ever been eradicated."

UK govt:

'It is possible a safe and effective vaccine will not be developed for a long time (or even ever)'

"All workers who cannot work from home should travel to work if their workplace is open."

"the Government is now advising that people should aim to wear a face-covering in enclosed spaces where social distancing is not always possible and they come into contact with others that they do not normally meet, for example on public transport or in some shops"

"A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers. These supplies must continue to be reserved for those who need it."

UK govt:

"people can now also spend time outdoors subject to: not meeting up with any more than one person from outside your household"

UK govt:

"You will still not be able to use areas like playgrounds, outdoor gyms or ticketed outdoor leisure venues, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching surfaces"

"The infection rate will increase if people begin to break these rules and, for example, mix in groups in parks, which will trigger the need for further restrictions."

"those aged over 70, those with specific chronic pre-existing conditions and pregnant women. These clinically vulnerable people should continue to take particular care to minimise contact with others outside their households, but do not need to be shielded."

'alongside increased information about the UK’s social distancing regime at the border, the Govt will require all international arrivals to supply their contact and accommodation information. They will also be strongly advised to download and use the NHS contact tracing app'

"the Government will require all international arrivals not on a short list of exemptions to self-isolate in their accommodation for fourteen days on arrival into the UK"

"These international travel measures will not come into force on 13 May but ...as soon as possible. "

"Schools should prepare to begin to open for more children from 1 June."

"The Government’s ambition is for all primary school children to return to school before the summer for a month if feasible"

UK govt:

'COVID-19 will not be the last major disease that endangers us. The Government must prepare and build now for diseases that could threaten us in the future.'

"The risk of infection increases the closer you are to another person with the virus and the amount of time you spend in close contact: you are very unlikely to be infected if you walk past another person in the street."

Potentially some odd-looking conversations in the park if we follow govt advice:

"Avoid being face to face with people if they are outside your household...You can lower the risk of infection if you stay side-to-side rather than facing people."

This bullet point stands out given some of the advice we heard in early March about football, Cheltenham etc:

'Avoid crowds'

"the Government has asked SAGE to examine whether, when and how it can safely change the regulations to allow people to expand their household group to include one other household in the same exclusive group."

"This could be based on the New Zealand model of household "bubbles" where a single "bubble" is the people you live with"

"the Government is also examining how to enable people to gather in slightly larger groups to better facilitate small weddings. "