Thread by @newreck

India has been fighting insurgencies since 1960s(?). Most of these were secessionist in nature but initial ones in North Eastern states received a setback after independence of Bangladesh. One flank was secured. Now these insurgencies didn't share borders with an enemical nation

Then in late 80s, Afghanistan was secured by West.. subsequent fall of USSR freed religiously motivated fighters who were required to be diverted and fuze in Kashmir was ignited. That, which was tried in 1947-48 and 1965 for shorter duration was now tried as a standing strategy

This time there was an enemical neighbour and restless citizens and insurgency really took off well supported by Afghan Veterans.

This is the time when India has burnt its fingers in Srilanka. Many Commanders and troops have experienced fierce Counter Insurgency in Srilanka.In 1988(?) PM Rajiv Gandhi visits China and a detente is agreed. 1993 (?) Peace and Tranquility Agreement is signed.

One flank with China is secured for time being but India has frequent change of Governments...PMs Chandra Shekhar, VP Singh then comes PM Rao. India has to sell its gold reserves to avoid default..we stare at dire economic situation..

Pakistan is Victorious, it has just unseated a Super Power which has disintegrated. Chief protagonist Zia Ul Haq has died and Pakistan is experimenting between Bhutto and Nawaj Sharif...Army remains in shadows..Kashmir its chief concern

It is in this situation that I feel a decisive shift happened. Our military decisively started looking as Counter Insurgency as its prime concern.

The shift was interrupted by Kargil but we were back in comfort zone immediately after the war was over...Then came Doctrine for these operations in 2006(?) and a generation of leaders learnt to hoodwink conventional operations.

More on this later..comments welcome.

Back to 90s. Kashmir Insurgency left little time with key decision makers to think about conventional matters. Army was in the thick of it and it and I suspect they loved the attention every bit. India didn't have stomach for a war so we just let 'water boil at right temperature'

However very importantly Navy and Airforce will pursue greatly disjointed strategies this point onwards. They didn't have the glory and rewards of Counter Insurgency..
So they continued to think about and plan for conventional War

Then Kargil happened in 1999. Indian Army was ill prepared. Even conventionally minded Indian Air Force didn't think greatly about J & K as a possible theatre of war (a mistake they didn't correct.. Leading to Pakistan seizing the moment to suprise India in J & K post Balakot)

Indian Navy did well at sea to coerce Pakistan and hastening it's decision to come to negotiating table with famous request of Nawaj Sharif to Clinton urging to de-escalate (was it 4th of July in 1999 when Sharif met Clinton?)

The disjointed thinking between Armed Forces led to much heartburn as evidenced by Gen Malik's book on Kargil..
Remember 'we will fight with what we have'
'airforce didn't agree to provide helicopters without political clearance'

Will add more

The War sadly didn't make us wiser. Reports of Kargil Review Committee and Group of Ministers were acted upon with 'bureaucratic snail pace' ... Army was back to glory of Counter Insurgency and limited Trans Border Actions...

Then came Operation Parakram. Since Army did little to reorient our thinking to Conventional Operations, it was again ill prepared to undertake operations in quick time. The window of opportunity was lost. Lots of stories but little action.

It was time to wake up.

Sadly we didn't.
Scenario has changed now. Putin has taken over in Russia in 2000. Al Qaida has attacked World Trade Centre in 2001 and 'Global War on Terror' has begun in Afghanistan.
A Super Power is back in neighborhood.

China of Jiang Jemin has handed over reins to Hu Jintao. The decadal turn over is complete. China is still biding it's time. It joins WTO is 2003(?). US benign support to China( since Kissinger's secret trip to China on a Pak military aircraft in 1971) is at its lowest ebb.

Indian Army is back in its comfort zone. Counter Insurgency is in full swing in Jammu and Kashmir. In 2008, Mumbai attack happens.
The attack damage another pillar of our conventional preparation. Now Indian Navy is also part orientated towards coastal security and anti piracy

A bit on Indian Airforce. They always had the time to think of conventional operations. Therefore they were best prepared for a war (it's my assumption). But I add a caveat, they have self imposed limitations on use of Airpower. It is somehow escalatory(remember 1962/1999)

I argue that it's a frivolous excuse initiated by some bright mind in run up to 1962 War but kept alive and self reinforced by our Airforce hierarchy which advised Decision Makers through various Wars. In this respect, I am glad the myth has been damaged for good post Balakot.

2008 Post Mumbai we had an option 'To Escalate to De-escalate' but we had wrong 'Choices'.I suspect the decision makers were in any case in-decisive and our Military Hierarchy didn't inspire much confidence with their inability to undertake a swift operation (Cold Start?)

The crisis passed and Global Economic Crisis sapped whatever stomach we might have had to pick a fight. It was year of Beijing Olympics. 中国 (Middle Kingdom, aka China) has arrived.
But then Tibet happened and it is distracted again.

We thought that the crisis will force a re-think but the glory of Counter Insurgency is too glittery to avoid. Army is back in its comfort Zone.
'Iron Fist with Velvet Gloves' and 'Sadbhavna' are the new buzz words. 'People' are the Centre of Gravity of Counter Insurgency :)

The shifting sand of Global Winds..
2012 : Xi Xinping has come to power..China Dream (中国梦) has come to fore
2008-12--Putin continues in saddle through propping Medvedev as President while he remains Prime Minister. Then gets re-elected as President
2014: PM Modi comes to Power

December 2015- Chinese Military Reorganization is announced
2016- Trump is inaugurated
Pakistan has had first Civilian turnover from Zardari to Sharif before he loses power to Imran Khan
The World is turning rightist, hardline and nationalistic.

Army is still busy in 1990s war. Still hoodwinking reforms, forward looking Reorganization. Army is too large to sustain but we raise more forces to tackle an assertive China while China itself is reducing troops greatly!
We are still confused between 5.56 and 7.62 or both :)

2016 Surgical Strike (not a fan of this word but used for better understanding of uninitiated) and particularly 2019 Balakot reveal flaws that are picked up by Key Decision Makers and urgency of reforms is realised by Political Establishment.
We have a CDS and a seat in MoD

All excuses for not reforming are gone. The Chief has stated his intention to withdraw from Counter Insurgency. The system and stakeholders will resist (Glory! Hangover! Comfort Zone! All slipping away ) and prolong. But I hope the will is there this time.Hope it is seen through

We can't do more of the same and expect different result.

We have fought counter Insurgency as a local war with elimination of Insurgents as the primary aim. We call people as Centre of Gravity, but it has really not been addressed that way since its much beyond the mandate of army..

The political and socio economic measures are disjointed from military operations. At least it appears to be the case.

Then what else to do at military level.
I argue that ceasing the external actors support is foremost requirement of terminating this insurgency. for that to happen a plethora of measures open up to deter external actor.

The measures include.
--- Gain Superiority at Operational Level of War to control Escalation Matrix and provide confidence to decision makers

--- Reduce troops to modernise quickly even at the cost of tactical reverses in short term before superior technology provides tactical superiority

--- Enhance economic and Technological superiority of India so much that we can win a war without fighting (Remember US victory in first Iraq War)

Lastly think strategic my dear leaders. Reform armed forces. Leave Counter Insurgency. Reduce Army. Modernise. Hide capability, bide time..accept reverses and strike when u r ready.

Thanks for reading n ur patience. Comments most welcome