THE DOWNTURN BEGAN IN 2018
While the official recession will likely be dated to Q1 of
this year, I'm increasingly of the view that the down cycle really began some time in the middle of 2018.
I wrote about it in today's @Markets newsletter
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
While the official recession will likely be dated to Q1 of
this year, I'm increasingly of the view that the down cycle really began some time in the middle of 2018.
I wrote about it in today's @Markets newsletter
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets I didn't fully get into it, but I've always thought that Q3 2011 was when the real post-crisis recovery began.
Some things that happened in Q3 2011
-- Real wages started climbing
-- The homebuilder stocks bottomed
-- Stocks/gold ratio turned around
Some things that happened in Q3 2011
-- Real wages started climbing
-- The homebuilder stocks bottomed
-- Stocks/gold ratio turned around
@markets Meanwhile, a number of things peaked in the middle of 2018.
Not only small caps and stocks/gold ratio as noted, check out the ratio of $AMZN to $WMT.
Given how much AMZN has soared lately, the ratio of the two companies stocks hasn't taken out the 2018 highs
Not only small caps and stocks/gold ratio as noted, check out the ratio of $AMZN to $WMT.
Given how much AMZN has soared lately, the ratio of the two companies stocks hasn't taken out the 2018 highs
@markets Also in the middle of the 2018, we saw the peak of a mini rebound in global trade as measured by this chart of goods exports to world GDP (though it was a very soft bounce)
@markets Anyway, sign up for the newsletter here. And get all the key markets/eco news in your inboxes each morning from the @markets crew link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/join/4wm/marke…
@markets Another chart that never recovered its 2018 highs
