Thread by @youyanggu

I ran my model to see how the US would fare if everyone began social distancing one week earlier. I estimate there would be 51k fewer deaths by today and likely 125k fewer deaths by August.

Interestingly, this exactly matches the 51k estimate provided by @washingtonpost.

Here's the link to this estimate on our website:

covid19-projections.com/us-1weekearlier

Here is what it would look like if people started social distancing one week later. We'd have 160k more deaths by May 14 and ~270k more deaths by August.

covid19-projections.com/us-1weeklater

As a personal anecdote, I remember when NBA suspended its season after Rudy Gobert tested positive, and that helped set off a cascading set of other cancellations and work-from-home guidelines.

Gobert and the NBA may have indirectly saved thousands of lives.