My Authors
Read all threads
Although I don't agree with much of this analysis, it is right that solar will be incredibly cheap, and thought-provoking.

(I think the fundamentals of applying learning curve analysis to a LCOE are slightly dodgy, and 30% is too high a rate even for capex).
Specifically, I'm a little concerned that a lot of the falls in cost of capital, O&M cost and non-module cost over the last decade have been one-offs. Cost of capital has dropped worldwide for everything, for example.
Our definition of a normal utility-scale PV project has gone from 1MW to at least 50MW, and there aren't that many places where you can just whack down a GW plant, so typical system sizes will cap out. Cleaning panels and mowing vegetation is more and more of the LCOE.
That said, I am one of the experts who has consistently underestimated cost reductions and short-term growth in solar over this decade. (There is an entire chapter in my book about how terrible I am at prediction).
There are, genuinely, advances being made which will continue to reduce capex and even increase capacity factor (the move to bifacial modules adds 4-9% extra generation, which we don't yet include in BNEF LCOE and probably should).
I also can't agree more with the bit titled "Solar is Amazing. It isn’t a Panacea". Any energy forecast going out to, say, 2025 should include solar as one of the cheapest sources of electricity, but seasonality is a huge barrier to high penetration in the electricity mix.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Jenny Chase

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!