💡?Time to ease the lockdown?💡
There are some encouraging signs that we are making good progress on meeting most of the governments five tests to ease the lockdown:
(Thanks to colleagues at CEBM Oxford for collating the data cebm.net/covid-19/covid…)
There are some encouraging signs that we are making good progress on meeting most of the governments five tests to ease the lockdown:
(Thanks to colleagues at CEBM Oxford for collating the data cebm.net/covid-19/covid…)
1. The NHS has sufficient capacity:
Daily hospital admissions for COVID-19 have fallen by 70% since the peak on April 2nd. Number of critical care beds with COVID-19 patients has fallen by >50% since the peak on April 8th and is now 20% (and never reached more than about 55%.)
Daily hospital admissions for COVID-19 have fallen by 70% since the peak on April 2nd. Number of critical care beds with COVID-19 patients has fallen by >50% since the peak on April 8th and is now 20% (and never reached more than about 55%.)
2. A ‘sustained and consistent’ fall in daily deaths:
Deaths in hospital have fallen by about 70% from the peak on April 8th up to May 6th.
Deaths in hospital have fallen by about 70% from the peak on April 8th up to May 6th.
Overall deaths in all settings (including care homes and in the community) have fallen by more than half from April 8th to May 1st (last date for which data available.)
3. Rate of infection decreasing to 'manageable levels':
ONS survey data released yesterday, which is reliable, objective data (not models) showed that currently 0.27% of the community population (148000) have COVID-19. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
ONS survey data released yesterday, which is reliable, objective data (not models) showed that currently 0.27% of the community population (148000) have COVID-19. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
This is a fall of about 70% since the assumed peak of approx. 527000 cases on March 23rd. The R value is now thought be about 0.75 (0.6 and 0.9) - a fall from 2.7 pre-lockdown.
mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid…
mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid…
4. Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand
This is the hardest to judge as the ideal number of tests required is unknown but we are now at about the same level as Germany has been testing at, which has been successful in controlling the epidemic.
This is the hardest to judge as the ideal number of tests required is unknown but we are now at about the same level as Germany has been testing at, which has been successful in controlling the epidemic.
On PPE: the situation seems to be improving (judging by decreased news reports about shortages) but threre is no published data on what the demand vs. supply situation is – please can the government release this!
5. Avoiding a second peak that would risk overwhelming the NHS
When there were over 500,000 daily cases and 3000 daily admissions, the NHS and critical care beds were not overwhelmed, so with falls of 70% since then, with a careful and controlled easing of lockdown restrictions
When there were over 500,000 daily cases and 3000 daily admissions, the NHS and critical care beds were not overwhelmed, so with falls of 70% since then, with a careful and controlled easing of lockdown restrictions
and a combination of test, trace & isolate and local lockdowns where necessary - which keeps R at or below 1 – it is hard to see how it would be overwhelmed now. So as long as we keep the number of cases below about 500,000 and
continue shielding those at highest risk of admission or critical care, the NHS should be able to cope – even as the rest of the NHS re-opens - which must also now happen to reduce the excess non-COVID deaths due to people not coming to hospital.
So, in summary, provided we have enough PPE for all who require it, we can ease aspects of the lockdown and then see what happens to the prevalence of infection and the R. And if this is not correct, please can the government release the data they are using to show us why!
