This piece by @TomChivers is essential reading on why this might be a sign of lockdown *succeeding* in the community, and why thanks to Simpson's Paradox this trend is "a product of our success, rather than of our failure". unherd.com/2020/05/what-t…
(Not for the first time, things that are true and complicated are harder to explain than those that are incorrect but simple)
Now the government has said R is a key factor in its lockdown alert level, it will need to start talking more about how to handle the fact that R varies - quite a lot - from place to place, and in different settings even in the same place. Which version of R matters, and how?
On a related note, all this talk of "R" suggests that pandemics are either a complete nightmare or a boom time for pirates.
It's also important to have clarity on when R is being measured. People hearing today's report on R rising might assume it relates to data showing a rise since the changes in lockdown rules this week, when in reality it seems it's a lot older than that:
