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#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 90,648 and the rate of growth of ACTIVE cases = 3.1% - so doubling in 23 days. This implies that the recoveries are growing fast. Press on India!
Total COVID cases, total COVID-related deaths and the growth rate of total cases - according to different data sources. All show growth rate of 4.9% - so doubling in 14 days. @WHO @ECDC_EU @JHUSystems
The CGDR of total cases = 11.26%
7Day Moving Averages:
1) Daily confirmed cases
2)Daily COVID deaths
1) Total cases in hotspot countries (>100K cases) and in India.
2) Total COVID deaths in hotspot countries (>3000 deaths) and in India.
How are countries recovering? #FlatteningtheCurve
1)Well: Germany, SKorea...Iran now seeing a major 2nd wave.
2)Slow recovery: Italy, Spain & slower France -they've #Flattenedthecurve but recovery rates differ.
3)Yet to show overall recovery: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, India...contd
1)Active cases still growing in US, UK, Russia, Brazil & India -they are yet to #FlattenTheCurve
2)Iran is showing a significant increase in Active cases after weeks of #FlatteningtheCurve - this is unique and reminder that virus doesn't go away when R0<1. Need sustained effort.
How are ACTIVE cases growing?
Hard lessons from Iran where ACTIVE cases fell consistently (negative growth rates) for weeks. Now they are positive & growing. Reminder that the virus doesn't go away when R0<1 or countries #FlattenTheCurve -it needs long term management strategies.
COVID death rate per million people:
1) Low and growing slowly: India, Japan
2) High and growing: Belgium, UK, Sweden, US, Canada....
This is a pretty graph...but the most morbid - Daily deaths in hotspot countries (>3000 deaths) and in India.
India shows v early signs of #FlatteningtheCurve (overall recovery):
1)Despite MH (34% of all cases), GJ (12% of all cases), TN (11.7% of all cases) where active cases are still rising.
2)Most states show growing recoveries.
How and where are ACTIVE cases growing in India?
1)Speeding: KL, BR, GJ, RJ, JK, MP
2)Slowing: everywhere else.
Where are new cases coming from in India? 5Day moving average of new cases:
1) MH (approx 1500) > TN (approx 500) > GJ (approx 350...but 1000 lately!) > DL (approx 400) > RJ/MP/UP (approx 200)....
2) The only way to reduce this: aggressive contact tracing + testing + containment.
Are states testing enough? Confirmed positive cases per 100 tests (all India 4%)
1) Not enough if graph rising = infection ahead of our knowledge: MH, GJ, BR
2) Not enough if prevalence high & persistent: DL
3)Need better/more contact tracing if prevalence low but growing: OD, TR
COVID death rate per million people:
1) GJ & MH : more than 4X all India death rate.
2) 5 states- WB, MP, DL, MH, GJ- driving all India death rate.
3) After weeks of stabilizing, DL is now reporting a rapidly rising death rate. @ArvindKejriwal
#correction The expected cases (counterfactual exercise) at 4 day doubling = 4,892,672 (not 49,315,044).
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