There’s a lot of legitimate criticisms to be made of Montenegro’s Đukanović but he’s the first WB6 head of state, as far as I know, to issue an unequivocally pro-LGBT message in this fashion. And that matters.
Croatia’s new president has also issued a statement re #IDAHOT. This is the kind of regional competition I’d like to see more of. Even if Croatia is already in EU & NATO, it’s still dealing w/ many of the same reactionary dynamics as it is WB6 neighbors.
Hashim Thaci of Kosovo. A number of colleagues have pointed out that Thaci has been these statements for much of the last decade. Thanks for the correction!
As a person who just published a book on the centrality of the genocide in Bosnia & Herzegovina during the 1990s in the national consciousnesses of the contemporary Bosniak community, I'd like to offer some brief thoughts on the upcoming UNGA Srebrenica Genocide resolution.
First, let us be clear on the facts: the events in July 1995 in Srebrenica were the culmination of a nearly 4 yr long long systematic campaign of extermination, expulsion, sexual violence, detention, & torture directed at the Bosniak community by the then regime in Belgrade.
Srebrenica was a genocide but it was also only the final expression of a state-sponsored & directed program by the Milosevic regime & its Bosnian Serb proxies in the period btw 1992 and 1995, the appropriate term for which is the Bosnian Genocide or the genocide in Bosnia.
Those who do not follow Balkan politics will not grasp the full scope of this story.
It is two foreign govts covertly channeling $ to Trump in exchange for his (2nd) admin's support for potentially the wholesale redrawing of the map the southeast Europe.
First, recall Serb nationalists were from onset of Trump's 1st campaign all in on him. Like the Russians, they saw in Trump both a kindred ideological spirit but also a categorical transactionalist who was willing to put all of US foreign policy on sale. balkaninsight.com/2016/11/11/ser…
Once he took office, they began openly directing monies twd his cronies. Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik - virtually whose entire regime is now under both US & UK sanctions - hired Trump's team to lobby for him in DC... motherjones.com/politics/2018/…
Over the past few mos I've repeatedly commented on Bosnia & Herzegovina's ability to provide critically needed 155mm shells, & other munitions, for Ukraine. There is a great opportunity here for the West to shift the tide of battle vs. Russia. Let me explain the details. 🧵
BiH's remarkably robust defense industry dates to the Yugoslav period. On the eve of the SFRJ's dissolution (1990/91), BiH was by some estimates producing cc 51% of all arms & munitions in Yugoslavia, which then had the 4th largest armed forces in Europe (the JNA).
While most the relevant plants were heavily damaged during the aggression vs BiH by Serbia & Croatia (1992-95), the sector was also relatively quick to bounce back. Without getting into the weeds, suffice it to say by the mid-2010s, BiH's defense industry was on its legs again.
As Bosnian Serb extremist Dodik again insists he intends to take the RS entity out BiH (while still somehow magically respecting the Dayton Agreement) a familiar, bad faith chorus has struck up: why can Kosovo secede from Serbia but the RS not from BiH?
WARNING: VERY LONG 🧵
Let's define our terms: "can" in international relations is a Q of power, not international law (i.e. the is/ought problem, in short). The US & China can do a lot of things bc they are super powers; Burkina Faso & Honduras cannot bc they are small, poor, & weak.
Kosovo was able to declare independence in 2008 bc the balance of power, regionally & internationally, favored its ability to do so & it enjoyed (begrudging but nevertheless significant) support for the same. It failed to win UN recognition but like Taiwan...
Bosnian Serb extremist Dodik makes some of his clearest threats of secessionist yet, saying if @OHR_BiH imposes new state property law "at 5, at 11 we declare independence." A few things worth unpacking here as they involve both BiH & EU dynamics. 🧵klix.ba/vijesti/bih/ot…
Dodik's hysterics confirm what I wrote about yesterday: @OHR_BiH is preparing a new state property law, and his threats clearly suggest he's looking for a still better division of spoils than what may nominally be on the table. Schmidt will concede if so.
Dodik also makes explicit reference to a nightmare scenario vis @euforbih I've warned about for nearly 2yrs: saying in secession scenario he expects them merely to stand along the inter-entity boundary line "and prevent contact". EUFOR as UNPROFOR in essence.
Deeply alarming revelation from the U.S. concerning a significant arms buildup by Serbia along the Kosovo border. It is vital now that the Biden admin not double-back on the clarity w/ which it appears finally to be seeing Vucic. He is a threat to be countered, not appeased.
As someone who was optimistic about Biden in 2020 & what I anticipated his regional policies to be, to deep disillusionment w/ his admin's actual approach to the WB, this is a much improved, realistic tone from the NSC. More needed, as per my txt below.x.com/JasminMuj/stat…
Obviously, security and defense personnel in Sarajevo should also raise their preparedness level too. The prospects of renewed Serbian military action in Kosovo - although unlikely, IMO - also significantly raises the prospects of Dodik pushing ahead w/ a real secession attempt.