As UK prepares to publish its oh-so-reasonable detailed proposals on future EU relations, in apparent effort to pressurise the stubborn foreigners into abandoning their own interests and objectives... let’s just recall a few key facts and considerations:
1) Before Brexit, UK and EU27 agreed joint statement of their negotiating objectives / outline terms. But as soon as UK had left, Johnson Government ripped up significant parts of that mutual understanding. Such duplicity may be rewarded at home, but elsewhere... it has a cost
2) UK asked for & was granted possibility to extend transition period beyond 31 Dec 2020. But Johnson then ruled out doing so, regardless of circumstances, including impact of unforeseen global health & economic crises. The extra time to talk is there - the UK just won’t use it
3) But key point, often overlooked: on the whole, Johnson’s revised proposals are so devoid of ambition or content that, even if he got everything he asked for & within the timescale he demands, for many sectors of UK economy and society, there still may as well be no deal at all
4) And yet what little remains of substantive UK demands still manage to be unreasonable: eg tariff free market access – without properly robust level playing field; eg police/criminal cooperation - without clear human rights guarantees. Remember 1): rank duplicity has its costs
5) Unreasonable not just for economic & civic but also political & diplomatic reasons. Even if not quite so bad as under Theresa May... UK still asking for special treatment, not just compared to other third countries, but even compared to what Member States sign up to themselves
6) what is incentive for EU to concede so much of its own internal & external interests & legitimacy, in return for so little, ie for UK to enjoy less trade disruption / reduce hit to its competitiveness, while EU is exposed to increased risk of unfair competition/social dumping?
7) as for UK suggestion that either EU27 aren't yet aware of how brilliant UK proposals really are, or EU leaders are too distracted by virus to give UK attention it deserves… oh, grow up!
[plus one wonders how much attention PM Johnson has been paying to detail of own plans]
[plus one wonders how much attention PM Johnson has been paying to detail of own plans]
8) In any case: does anyone seriously believe that complex, contested international negotiations hinge on what is "fair" or "reasonable"? This isn't metaphysics. It's about mutual & competing interests, power inequalities & incentives. Welcome to Global Reality, Global Britain...
9) So… I’m afraid upcoming UK publication stunt does not feel anything like genuine negotiating initiative towards EU. It has all the trappings of another drip-drip-drip in the long game of domestic propaganda to convince UK public that neoTory Brexit is just bloody marvellous
10) But... none of which is to argue against extension of transition! On contrary: even if Johnson’s deal wouldn't be much better than ending up with no deal at all, extension = now less about extra negotiating time & more about not wilfully heaping another crisis on top of virus
