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#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Total cases have now exceeded 1Lakh. The growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3% - so doubling in 23 days. Important to appreciate that this rate has not changed in last 3 days...we are struggling to #FlattenTheCurve
And this is where the problem lies: 5Day moving average of new confirmed cases is still rising. MH is clocking 2000 new cases >> GJ & TN (500) > DL (400) > RJ & MP (200)...
The growth rate of ACTIVE cases across states remains positive (other than PB, HR, UP, AP) and is in fact speeding further in MH (!), GJ (!), KA, RJ, MP, TS and JK.
How are states recovering?
1) MH has 35% of cases and still growing exponentially!
2)TN & GJ showing rising recovery, but large number of active cases.
3) Second wave: RJ, MP, JK, TS, KA, KL
Given lack of data on contact tracing (or any individual level data!), the testing data becomes an important indicator of efforts that states are making to control this pandemic. Confirmed positive cases per 100 tests (4% all India):
1) MH, GJ, DL: Clueless
2) TS: just woke up!
COVID death rate per million people:
1) GJ and MH: v high number of deaths.
2) DL: Fast rising death rate.
3) All India: 2.45 per million (being pulled up by GJ, MH, DL, MP, WB)
Total confirmed cases, total deaths and the growth rate of total cases - according to different data sources. @JHUSystems @WHO @ECDC_EU
7Day moving average:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
The CDGR = 11.14%...falling but v slowly.
1) Total cases in hotspot countries (>100K cases)
2) Total deaths in hotspot countries (>3000 deaths)
3) India qualifies in both - from today.
How are countries recovering?
1) Very well: Germany and S Korea
2) Slowly: Italy, Spain and slower still France
3) UK: reporting v few recoveries and large deaths
4) Yet to recover: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, India ...because their ACTIVE cases are still growing.
ACTIVE cases still rising: yet to #FlattenTheCurve
1) US, UK, Brazil, Russia, India
2) Iran: after months of strong recovery, their active cases are rising ominously since last 10 days consistently (?)
How are ACTIVE cases changing?
1) Rising speed: Brazil, Canada, Mexico, Peru...
2) Slowing down: most countries
3) Ireland: massive data fluctuations. bad data.
COVID death rate per million:
1) Low and rising: India, Japan
2) High and rising: Belgium (v high!), UK, Sweden, US, Canada
3)Stabilizing in most countries.
4) China: No changes. Ever. Magical!
I’ve received many messages asking about today’s delay. Apologies friends, there’s much on my mind....🙏
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