Thread by @roycanivel_inq

The economic stimulus bill co-authored by Cong. Stella Quimbo includes P20 billion solely for mass testing.

If it gets passed, 20 million Filipinos could get tested, regardless if they are showing symptoms or not, through antibody rapid kits. They could get tested twice.

Mass testing, @TeacherStellaQ clarified, does not mean testing everyone, but it means testing a huge number of Filipinos to an extent that even asymptomatic carriers will also be tested.

Mass testing could also lead to some false negatives. But not mass testing could be worse.

Under the Philippine Economic Stimulus Act or Pesa, P10 billion will be allotted for mass testing this year, and another P10 billion for 2021, so that there will be a faster economic recovery and a safe working environment.

In an online forum hosted by @FOCAP2020, Quimbo explained how they came up with the figure.

Simply put, the amount was computed by targeting to test 20 million people twice in metropolitan areas such as Metro Manila, and multiplying that by the P450 cost of each test kit.

The total would result to P18 billion, she said, with another P2 billion allotted for administering the kits. Mass testing is important because it will address the fear of being infected by asymptomatic carriers.

“This fear factor that we’re talking about that is so real. The basis for that fear is the phenomenon of asymptomatic transmission,” she said.

“The reason why we have this situation is we’re not really doing mass testing. So that’s [why] we have this provision,” she said.

The PH gov does not know many are asymptomatics.

But she cited the incidence of asymptomatic cases in other countries. In Iceland, she said the incidence rate is 50 percent, 30 percent in China, 25 percent in South Korea, and 40 to 50 percent in the United States.

On the other hand, she said that 15 percent of those who take antibody rapid test kits could have a false negative.

While she did not cite her source for the figure, a report from US-based media outlet NPR gave the same figure.

NPR reported on a study on commonly used antivirus tests, which showed that Abott ID NOW, one of the tests, has a false negative rate of 15 percent. It can give the results in less than 15 minutes.

npr.org/sections/healt…

She said that the number of asymptomatics in the Philippines could be somewhere in the middle compared to that of the countries she earlier mentioned.

“In short, it’s not a small number. So suppose in the PH, maybe it’s somewhere in the middle. Maybe it’s [40] percent,” she said

If a case is false positive, she said that could be confirmed by a confirmatory test called a PCR test, which takes longer but is more reliable.

If it’s false negative, that is still not worse compared to the number of asymptomatics who would not be tested.

“But the question is if you’re false negative, and that would happen 15 percent of the time, which is the argument for government not to do it. But my question is, which is higher? 40 percent or 15 percent? Clearly, 40 percent is higher,” she said.

“If you don’t do testing you’re stuck with 40 percent asymptomatics. If you do testing with a 15 percent false negatives, you’re down with 15 percent,” she added.

The mass testing section of the bill, however, is part of a broader P1.3 trillion economic package that is meant to revive an economy struck by a health crisis. Obviously, it can’t pass on its own without the rest of the bill.

It’s the rest of the bill that takes time to pass.

When asked about the delay, Quimbo, an economist and the former commissioner at the Philippine Competition Commission, said this is partly because of the need to validate each provision with the sectors it aimed to support, especially given the huge money at stake.

Nearly three months have passed since a lockdown has been put in place, first in Metro Manila, then in Luzon, until it extended to other parts of the country dealing with the pandemic. However, the bill is still nowhere close to becoming a law.

Earlier versions of the bill could be traced back to as early as March 12, days before the first lockdown, when Quimbo filed House Bill 6606, a P370 billion economic stimulus package that wanted to help businesses by providing wage subsidies and interest-free loans, among others.

Quimbo’s bill was later consolidated with other bills, including that of Albay 2nd Representative Joey Salceda, who pushed also in March for P650 billion for an enhanced “build, build, build” program that would include the construction and development of modern health facilities

The Bayanihan to Heal As One Act, on the other hand, took around a week since the lockdown to pass.

She didn’t give a timeline for the passage of the bill, although she said lawmakers need to act on it quickly.

“When exactly? I wish I knew. I don’t have a crystal ball. But then our recess [in Congress] is on June 4. We really need to act on it quickly. But of course, there are other issues that Congress has to deal with, like for example, the ABS-CBN franchise,” she said.

When asked why just P20 billion, she said: “Is it enough? Maybe not. But then again, the private and government must do [their] share. This is really intended as an assistance for businesses coursed through the LGUs [local government units].”