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Hey folks! We've updated our pollster ratings with results from the 2020 primaries! Overview here: fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-…
And you can see the ratings themselves here:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratin…
Overall, the average error in primary polls was fairly high ... it's always high in the primaries, but was toward the high end of high this year. However, the unusually rapid shifts in the race caused pollsters problems. They did relatively well outside of SC and Super Tuesday.
Pollsters are also using lots of new techniques and the results are decidedly... mixed. Some new methods are getting comparatively good results but some others just aren't; you have to go on a case-by-case basis.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US numbers via @COVID19Tracking. A weird one.

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,259
Yesterday: 629
One week ago (5/27): 1,402

Newly reported cases
T: 19K
Y: 16K
5/27: 21K

Newly reported tests
T: 286K*
Y: 302K
5/27: 405K

Positive test rate
T: 7%*
Y: 5%
5/27: 5%

* See next tweet
* Test numbers *dropped* by ~74,000 in Georgia, which I assume means they removed antibody tests from their testing numbers (good!). Without GA, there were 360K tests reported, a fairly typical number for recent days, for a positive rate of 5%.
The other thing is that I thought we'd get some states reporting large numbers of deaths and cases because of reporting lags after the 3-day weekend. But, actually not *that* bad. While 1,259 deaths is way up from the weekend, it's down from 1,402 last Wednesday.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One way to look at this: until the past couple of weeks, sit-down restaurants in TX/GA/FL were operating at maybe 10-20% capacity and returning only 10-20% back to normal (with people being careful, using socially distanced seating, etc.) was never likely to cause a huge spike.
Now that restaurants in these places are operating at ~50% capacity (not that restaurants themselves are so important, but using them as a proxy for broader activity) we'll see what the numbers look like in a couple of weeks.
Which is not to say you can't find fault with the critics. Trying to convince people that "reopening will cause huge spikes", when in practice re-opening was extremely modest and tentative, was a dumb and foreseeable mistake and set a low bar for success for these states.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US #'s via @COVID19Tracking

**Likely impacted by holiday weekend**

Newly reported deaths
Today: 629
Yesterday: 523
One week ago (5/19): 1,430

Newly reported cases
T: 16K
Y: 19K
5/19: 21K

Newly reported tests
T: 302K
Y: 441K
5/19: 397K

Positive test rate
T: 5%
Y: 4%
5/19: 5%
This is the fewest reported cases in a day since 3/25, but that's probably at least in part because states are slow to report at the end of a 3-day weekend, which likely means the numbers will bounce back tomorrow and Thursday.
In other words, the flip side to not getting too excited about these numbers is not freaking out too much if states report big one-day totals tomorrow or Thursday, which is likely to happen in at least some places if their reporting is backlogged.
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