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#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases mount, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3.6% - so doubling in 19 days. We are struggling to #FlattenTheCurve - need better isolation, tracing and testing strategies at local district levels across the country.
This is where the trouble lies: we are clocking ~5000 new cases over last several days. 5 Day moving average of new cases:
1)MH accounts for ~2000
2)TN (~700)
3)DL (~500)
4)RJ, GJ, UP (~300)
5) Several states reporting their highest number of new cases now: DL, RJ, UP, KA, AS
How are ACTIVE cases growing across states?
1) Rising speed: KA, MH, RJ, MP, JK, WB, GJ, UP, TS (these states need better isolation+tracing+testing)
2) Slowing down: KL, OD, TN, PB...
Which states are #FlatteningTheCurve ? How is recovery looking?
1) Doing well: KL, PB, CH, TR
2) Early signs of #FlatteningTheCurve : AP, HR
Testing across states: confirmed positive cases per 100 tests (4% all India)
1) MH, GJ, DL, TN, OD, BR - Need more testing and much better contact tracing because the infection is ahead of our knowledge in these states.
2) TS: high infection prevalence rate - so need more CT+T
COVID death rate per million:
1) GJ, MH: more than 4X all India.
2) DL: death rate rising rapidly...
3) With similar total case load: GJ has 9X death rate as TN
7 Day moving averages:
1) Daily new cases
2) Daily deaths
The CDGR = 11.1%
1) Total cases in hotspot countries (>100K cases)
2) Total deaths in hotspot countries (>3000 deaths)
How are countries recovering?
1) Very well: Germany, S Korea
2) Slowly: Italy, Spain (data issues, @JHUSystems pls note) and slower France.
3) Yet to show overall recovery (#FlattenTheCurve ): US, UK, Russia, Brazil, India...since their ACTIVE cases are still rising...
1) ACTIVE cases still growing: US, UK, Russia, Brazil and India - they are yet to #FlattenTheCurve
2) Iran: Active cases rising ominously again, after weeks of strong recovery.
COVID death rate per million people:
1) Low and rising: India, Japan
2) High and rising: UK, Sweden, US, Canada.
3) V high but stabilizing: Belgium, Spain, Italy, France...
Daily deaths in hotspot countries.
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