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1) As Premier @francoislegault announced Thursday that day camps will open on June 22 as scheduled, he cited progress in the fight against the #pandemic in Quebec, the hardest-hit province in Canada. In this thread, I will explain why Montreal is still at risk of flare-ups.
2) Montreal’s chief public health officer, Dr. Mylène Drouin, noted that the city's #COVID hospitalizations and intensive-care stays have decreased since last week, although she did not provide any figures. Certainly, that’s a welcome development amid tight confinement measures.
3) Drouin also pointed out that “even though we are testing more and more every day, we are seeing a decline in the epidemiological curve.” In the chart below, I will leave it up to you to decide whether, in fact, that is truly the case.
4) On Thursday, Montreal declared 44 #COVID deaths, the same as the day before. The dark blue line in the chart below suggests a decline from what appears to have been a peak two weeks ago. But Drouin did not go into more detail about the mortality stats at her briefing today.
5) However, Drouin confirmed that new #COVID outbreaks are still erupting in long-term care centres (CHSLDs). “We will have to live with some outbreaks in the next couple of months,” Drouin stated. So what will happen once the latest loosening of confinement measures rolls out?
6) Authorities released on Thursday the latest portraits of #COVID contagion by neighborhood. The chart below shows the situation in Côte-Saint-Luc has clearly stabilized following strict confinement by the municipality. But there is still a smattering of new community cases.
7) In contrast, let's look at the situation in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve in the chart below. It’s hard to conclude there's a definitive flattening of the curve in this borough. It’s for this reason that Mayor @Val_Plante said authorities are distributing free masks there.
8) It’s also hard to conclude that Saint-Laurent’s curve is flattening, as the chart below shows. In this #pandemic, Montreal is only as strong as its weakest links. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and a number of other places are still reporting community transmission of the #coronavirus.
9) Villeray-Saint-Michel-Parc Extension, for example, reported 41 new #COVID cases on Thursday, the highest in the city. Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, which the day before observed a dozen new deaths, reported 40 cases. This demonstrates the volatility of the city's contagion.
10) The city’s health infrastructure continues to be overwhelmed as hospitals must ramp up elective surgeries despite a shortage of staff, a resurgence in ER overcrowding and burned out nurses. And it’s in this context that the city will be reopening many retail stores on Monday.
11) On Friday, outside gatherings will be allowed of 10 people from three households, a triple social bubble, one bubble more than in New Brunswick and Newfoundland, which both have far fewer cases than Quebec. Realistically, how will #SocialDistancing be maintained in the city?
12) The Premier warned that if “the contagion restarts, we’ll have to come back to a pause.” That might happen sooner than the government thinks. One last chart: on Saturday, Quebec quietly surpassed France in its #COVID mortality rate. End of thread. Stay safe everyone.
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