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Useful studies evaluating COVID interventions starting to emerge. Key themes: need to adjust for delay from a change in transmission to change in data, & include multiple change points to account for variation over time:
- science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
- stablab.stat.uni-muenchen.de/_assets/docs/a…
We used a similar approach in our early analysis of control measures in Wuhan. We let the model estimate how transmission changed over time (using a sequential Monte Carlo method), then compared how this corresponded to timing of interventions thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Some additional context on the Science paper above:
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
I didn't agree with early claims that large % were already seropositive, but did like that they were making a testable prediction: serology would eventually indicate whether the theory was correct. Think we need more of this in public discussions... 1/
If people think that pre-existing cross-reactive cellular or humoral immunity is reducing susceptibility, then what assay/samples would be required to conclusively show this? 2/
If people think that heterogeneity in contact network structure is dramatically reducing the herd immunity threshold, what contact data and seroprevalence would show this? 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Now peer-reviewed: thelancet.com/journals/lanpu…
Worth noting, of course, that repeated lockdowns are just one possible scenario for COVID-19 control. I outlined a couple of options in this March talk (COVID from 45:00 here: panopto.lshtm.ac.uk/Panopto/Pages/…)
Unfortunately, we're also seeing a concerning 'scenario C' emerging – where cases have been rising despite control measures, and these measures are now being lifted:
sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/i…
bbc.co.uk/news/world-lat…
aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/s…
Read 3 tweets
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
Back in early Feb, we suggested the COVID outbreak was about to peak in Wuhan (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…). Looking at the data now, surely this was obvious? A brief thread on real-time analysis and managing hindsight... 1/
When we suggested the outbreak was peaking, there was a lot of scepticism, including from other modelling groups (e.g. nature.com/articles/d4158…). Reported cases seemed to be slowing down, but maybe testing was at capacity and growth in infections was going undetected? 2/
On 13th Feb, there was a huge spike in cases as China changed their case definition. Try and put hindsight to one side and read this article as if in real-time. What would your conclusion about the China outbreak be? theguardian.com/world/2020/feb… 3/
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