One critique: I think the napkin math for Rogan's possible indie subscription business is too optimistic.
Why? There's a deep integration between editorial product and business model, and JRE is not optimized for subscriptions.
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I think there's roughly zero chance he gets 5% conversion on 11m downloads, for a several reasons:
I would bet JR's millions of fans are not more affluent than average, and think of it as a fun time killer.
Probably 2.5% of 8m, which at $5/mo would be $12m ARR.
cobloom.com/blog/churn-rat…
In order to keep growing, he needs to add >6k paying subs a month.
Hard to grow quickly in this scenario.
The more we learn, the more different we realize the content has to be.
(the end!)