Thread by @nomadicmatt

As the world gears up to (slowly) travel again, I’ve seen a lot of articles about the future of travel and when it will go back to “normal.” I think they are all way too optimistic and I have a few contrarian thoughts. Let’s discuss:

Most of these articles seem to be navel-gazing exercises. They talk about what hotels and airlines will do, how destinations will change, and what this means for the environment. That's all well and good and there are points I agree on:

Yes, local/domestic travel will be big. Yes, many countries will require a test at the border or proof of a recent negative COVID test. Yes, companies will tout their cleanliness more. And, yes, recovery will be slow.

But travel will never again be as big or the same as before.

These articles ignore the most important thing about travel: people.

Humans are risk-reducing creatures. Risk = death. In caveman times, we stayed in the cave. Now, we stay at home.

Until there’s a vaccine, people won’t risk travel in enough numbers to sustain any tourism.

I’ve seen many polls, talked to friends, family, a lot of readers that have all pointed to one unmistakable conclusion: very few people want to step out the door until they can be sure it is safe - no matter what borders open or companies do.

If companies talked to end consumers more, they would know this. There's like 20% of people that will go right away and 20% who are so risk-averse they are simply gonna wait for a vaccine.

Everyone else? They want to see what happens to the first 20%.

No one cares what the Marriot is doing or if the middle seat is blocked off. That’s not how people view health risks.

Until the majority see what happens to the first 20% or there is a vaccine, travel is not gonna happen. The industry will continue to be on life support.

The travel industry is in a depression and one thing is for certain: it will be a lot smaller in the future.

And I am ok with that.

Travel had become unsustainable.

Cheap flights, tours, and hostels have allowed tourism to balloon to unsustainable levels. Travel was unsustainable. Destinations couldn’t handle the number of people coming to them and most travelers weren’t the best guests.

Sometimes more is NOT better.

Just look at Tulum, Barcelona, Bali, Amsterdam, Venice, Macchu Picchu, and countless other places. They were dying under the weight of tourists!

COVID is going to be a HARD reset for travel.

And I’m all for it. This industry got too bloated.

COVID will give a chance for destinations to come up with sustainable travel plans and reduce visitor numbers, get rid of excess, and (hopefully) end a lot of this “influencer” crap.

As Buffett says, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

Everyone is banking on a fall tourism boom but I am not so sure. Consumers have built in an expectation of a second wave. The vast majority of people are going to hold out to see if that happens or not. And most countries will (in an attempt to avoid that) keep huge crowds out.

Once countries open up and people don’t come, businesses will close. Government loans only last so long. Places stay open as long as they can but the economics of fewer tourists will mean that, eventually, a wave of closures is inevitable.

How many hostels, airlines, or hotels can operate at 50% capacity? How big can Airbnb be if no one wants to stay in people’s homes? Same with Couchsurfing. How many walking tour companies in Paris can be sustained by vastly smaller crowds?

What does the future of travel look like? Who the really knows! Whatever happens will depend on how safe people feel but I think most articles are painting too rosy of a picture of the future.

All these companies and stories about "how people will travel in the fall" are just fooling themselves. It's not going to happen that soon.

And, while that sucks for a lot of people (including me), I think it will lead to a better, more sustainable, travel industry.

Destinations just weren’t built for so many people. Travel needed a fresh start and, while the short term pain will be severe, I think this will be better for the industry - and the world - in the long term. /END

P.S. - Let's also not forget that many, many people just lost their jobs & can't afford to travel now or in the near future. That takes MILLIONS of people out of the equation. And many more are worried about being quarantined in other countries (ie why local travel will be big).