Time to check in again to see how Germany are doing since easing lockdown on 19 April.
Remember easing has happened in stages & significant lags between infections & outcomes, esp. deaths. That said, given 5 weeks have elapsed, our Govt should now be able to draw some lessons.
Remember easing has happened in stages & significant lags between infections & outcomes, esp. deaths. That said, given 5 weeks have elapsed, our Govt should now be able to draw some lessons.
First the Reproduction value, R. Here is the German newer, 7-day estimates (confidence intervals omitted) which goes up to 20 May. The point estimates suggest their aim of keeping this below 1 seems to have been achieved so far. 
Next new cases, using 7-day average to smooth over weekend reporting. These have trended down continuously and now less than 20% of the pre-easing level.
Similar trend for ICUs patients, now less than a third the pre-easing level.
Finally daily deaths (again using 7-day average). Again less than 20% of the pre-easing level.
Overall, there is no sign yet of any outcomes worsening in response to easing lockdown restrictions, in fact the opposite.
That might change of course but this should give the Government some confidence in proceeding with further measures to ease the UK lockdown.
That might change of course but this should give the Government some confidence in proceeding with further measures to ease the UK lockdown.
