Thread by @jposhaughnessy

1/ "The greatest progress that the human race has made lies in learning how to make correct inferences."
~Nietzsche

We make a number of important decisions by inference, what happens when we get the wrong? A thread

2/ It's easy to get confused when you believe you "know" something like why another person is engaging in an activity. Many of these confusions are caused by incorrect inferences. We see someone doing something, infer *why* they are doing it, and make choices because of our

3/ flawed inference. In "Quantum Psychology," author Robert Anton Wilson recounts an old Sufi tale that illustrates how errors can compound.

One day, a famous Mullah named Nasrudin was riding his donkey in the desert. He saw a group of men on horseback in the distance

4/ knowing that bandits frequented the area, he inferred from their grouping and number that these men were bandits and so, frightened, he began riding his donkey at a gallop in the opposite direction.

But his donkey was slow, which gave the men on horseback the time to

5/ recognize the famous Mullah. They asked themselves "Why would the wisest man in Islam rush off like that? Surely one as knowledgeable as Nasrudin would go at such a pace if there was something marvelous to see that might be gone soon, so, wanting to see what it was they

6/ began to follow him. Looking back, Nasrudin saw the men pointing at him and begin to gallop quickly in his direction, confirming his fears that they were bandits intent on robbing him. He kicked at his donkey to speed up, but feared he could never outrun the horse.

7/ The men on horseback saw this, and increased their speed as well, not wanting to miss the opportunity to see the fantastic thing the wise Mullah was trying to get to--at that moment, Nasrudin saw a graveyard and decided to hide from the "bandits" there.

8/ He jumped off his donkey and hid behind a large gravestone. Just as he did so, the men arrived and saw him hiding. They were perplexed by this and during their pause to figure it out, Nasrudin realized that they were not bandits at all, but old and dear friends of his.

9/ The men asked in unison "Why are you hiding behind that gravestone wise Nasrudin?"

10/ Nasrudin repled: "It's more complicated than you realize. I am here because of you and you are here because of me."

How many times have you seen another do something, incorrectly inferred why they did it and then changed your behavior based upon that inference?

11/ My guess would be more often than you realize. Incorrect inferences about why someone has done something can lead, like this fable, to funny and innocent results. With both parties ending up someplace that neither of them intended to be.

12/ But incorrect inferences can also lead to disastrous results. Like this cartoon, it's often difficult to really know with certainty what someone else's statements or actions *really mean* but it's built into our programming to take action on what we *think* we know.

13/ We make inferences all the time and often automatically. Many of us also suffer from "premature certainty" which effectively closes our minds to a continued search for alternate explanations or reasons for why something has happened. And if the conditions we are accessing

14/ correspond with our mental models "rules of thumb" or stereotypes, it's almost impossible to change our minds about the original inference. Much like Nasrudin's mental shortcut that the area is frequented by bandits on horseback so therefore those men are bandits, we often

15/ fall into the same trap when making inferences about things that are completely wrong and yet "feel" so right--be they inferences about investments, another person's character, or *why* someone said or did something. It can often lead to a host of misunderstandings

16/ that, at best, blur our perception filters but at worst can cause irrevocable harm, either to our wealth through investing or our relationships and understanding of the world.

The lesson here is a simple one--don't rush to judgement and think that your original

17/ take or inference is correct. Leave room in your mind for error correction and the ability to let new information change what you have inferred. Leave room for doubt, because the probabilities suggest you'll sometimes (many times?) be wrong.

18/ this is such a common error in our thinking that even poets touch on it. My favorite poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote:

"Would it have been worth while
If one, settling a pillow or throwing off a shawl,
And turning toward the window, should say:

19/ “That is not it at all,
That is not what I meant, at all.”

Finally, make an effort to train your mental models to get better at inferences, because when they become more accurate, your progress will move at a far faster pace

20/ because you'll become much better at inferring what someone or some action *actually* means and improve your decision making under uncertainty.