Thread by @a_sandhan

If we look closely at India China border, India border with Tibet extend from HP, Uttarakhand to AP, its the biggest (95%)
Current crisis at Galwan bordering Aksai Chin is in Xinjiang.

https://twitter.com/a_sandhan/status/1265237855460352001?s=20

As seen from attached map 3 main highways link it with mainland China.
Xining(Qinghai) - Lhasa G109 1917 KM.
Chengdu(Sichuan) - Lhasa G318 2144 KM.
Kargilik(Xinjiang) - Lhasa G219 2095 KM.
Kunming(Yunnan) - Lhasa meets Sichuan Tibet HW at Markam.
Map from Tibet travel

Important airbase in Tibet r located at Lhasa(Gonggar), Nyngchi, Shigaste, Shiquanche(Gar), Bangda.
Important IAF base r facing them r 217 to 360 km away.
All our airbase have hardened shelter, in surprise attack fighter jets r safe, not the case with China.

All airbase in Tibet n all 4 life line highways r within striking zone of land based Brahmos (290km).
At many place G219 n G318 runs just 100km from our border.
Due to takeoff from high altitude in Tibet/Xinjiang PLAF has to operate with 50% payload.

This is most serious lacuna of Chinese airforce(PLAF).
IAF has no such restrictions as it takeoff from plains.
For same task PLAF have to undertake twice sortie, airbase r unprotected.
IAF have a range of airbases facing China plus backup bases r not faraway.

Xining, Chengdu, Kunming the nearest to Lhasa(Tibet) r 2000km away from it which itself r 2000 km away from Beijing, Shanghai.
Chinese supply lines r stretched 4000 km, highways in Tibet/Xinjiang within striking distance, airbase n army logistic centres same case of IAF/IA.

So all talk of bringing large contingent of force n sustaining its supply line is near impossible.
Cut the HW, PLA will simply surrender.
In 1967/1987 war, China despite having N bomb advantage didn't dare to take any India area, will it do now.
Only lutyens moron can think so.

Now coming to Xinjiang map.
Aksai Chin is barren land but strategic G219 HW passes thro it.
2 airbase Kashgar n Hotan.
Xining - Kargilik G315 2807 KM.
Kargilik - Lhasa G219 2095 KM.
One can see how circuitous the supply line is.

Kashgar is 600 km from Leh. With payload restriction n sizeable distance doubtful if this base can be useful for bombing.
From all this it is India who can give aircover to its army, advancing army n prize catch Lhasa is not far away.

China has good arsenal of long distance missiles n a very good rocket division.
If China really intends full blown escalation then gamechanger for India is Indian Navy.
From Persian Gulf, Gulf of Eden to Malacca strait its IN all the way.

Only US navy can defeat us in Indian Ocean region (IOR).
China's 100% oil import n 80% trade happens thro this IOR.
A naval blockade for 8/15 days will bring China to its knees.
No way they can send its navy to open the blockade.

Its not only IN but even IAF placed at strategic bases overlook area from Persian Gulf to Malacca Strait.
Mumbai - Gulf of Eden 2762 km.
Tanjavur - Malacca Strait 2347 km.
Car Nicobar - Malacca Strait 900 km.
Actually India has upper hand in any war with China.

China main objective is territorial expansion, it uses economic clout n bullying by way of inflating its military power.
Majority of small nation succumb to it.
India is first country to call its bluff, just like N bluff of Pak.

Chinese military have zero combat experience, even Pakis r better than them with continuous exposure of war/combat.
China aim is to replace USA as superpower.
A full blown war with India will be inconclusive with both nations going back to 1960-70's era.

China know it, so they decided to contain India thro Pak.
China will never go to war with India.
India should use this n create problem on LAC n force sizeable Chinese deployment.
Maintaining Tibet n associated infra is white elephant for China.

Should India take back Akai Chin, not at the moment.
Due to criminal spread of coronavirus world is going to put huge penalty on China.
USA can put heavy sanctions, breaking the back of Chinese economy. USA will settle nothing short of it.

China will suffer huge economic losses, jobs will dry up, social unrest will be hard to contain.
China will surely disintegrate by next decade, but the first to breakup will be Tibet.
Tibet being a white elephant, China will give it up to save mainland.

If Tibet goes, Aksai Chin will fall as bonus in India's lap.
Tibet is unsustainable on its own, will merge with India.
Its more defendable from our side plus old transit routes still exist for communication.
Modi knows n will make use of all strategic advantages 2 pindown China

Let Lutyens media spread any lies to belittle Indian strength, reality is China fears humiliation at the hand of IA/IAF.
End.