i think the most parsimonious explanation for the so-far relatively benign (knock wood!) reopenings is that lockdown April really changed the baseline for how we behave when we are less constrained. 1/
think about "social distancing" early in March. public health officials had already advised avoiding crowds, 6 ft social distancing, etc. but most people in most of the country were going about their business, in stores, restaurants, standing in unspaced queues, etc. 2/
through + after the lockdown, many more of us are navigating stores warily, instinctively pulling away if anyone gets to close, taking all of our out-of-home recreations outdoors, avoiding crowds, wearing masks. even foolhardy restaurant goers sequester themselves cautiously. 3/
beyond the many formal restrictions that do remain, America "reopened" is behaviorally quite different than the America that closed. 4/
this strikes me as both optimistic and pessimistic. on the one hand, continued vigilance renders reopening sustainable despite our not-yet-adequate testing and tracing. on the other hand, it's easy to imagine that over time we relax our vigilance and bear rough consequences. /fin
