America has lost our first 100,000 lives to COVID-19.
Our "first" 100,000 because we face two futures in this pandemic: tolerating it, or fighting it.
We can be Chamberlain, or we can be Churchill.
Our "first" 100,000 because we face two futures in this pandemic: tolerating it, or fighting it.
We can be Chamberlain, or we can be Churchill.
Much of the country is now following the Neville Chamberlain strategy. The burden of fighting is high, so better to make peace and try to live with it instead - while getting on with life and hoping it will not devour us.
Even in a best case scenario, this is a deadly path.
Even in a best case scenario, this is a deadly path.
In the Chamberlain strategy - best case - the long-term outlook remains a lot like the status quo. We reopen without containment, and if we're lucky, the virus simmers but does not explode.
But that still means 500-1000 deaths per day, indefinitely. More in winter. Best case.
But that still means 500-1000 deaths per day, indefinitely. More in winter. Best case.
That level of mortality, if sustained, would put COVID behind only cancer and heart disease (neither of which are transmissible) as a killer of Americans. And more if it gets out of control (returning to mid-April peak levels would make it #1). cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/l…
And that also means sustained economic disruption, as many people continue to voluntarily distance, and high-risk individuals would stay sequestered to protect themselves. Indefinitely.
And of course, that best case scenario assumes we can maintain a low simmer after reopening.
And of course, that best case scenario assumes we can maintain a low simmer after reopening.
That's dubious. While the early-opening states haven't seen cases explode so far, they are seeing upticks in hospitalizations. The numbers are starting to look concerning in some areas, particularly parts of Alabama.
And in general, we're seeing the virus move more and more in smaller and rural towns. The emerging hotspots are no longer the big coastal metro areas.
So there's a pretty significant risk that the Chamberlain strategy of attempting to accommodate the virus will simply push rural America into the line of fire and see cases start rising again.
And that could easily spiral into another 100,000 lost over the coming months.
And that could easily spiral into another 100,000 lost over the coming months.
But we also have another possible future: a Churchill strategy. Don't accommodate the virus; tolerate some more near-term pain while seeking to defeat it.
Some parts of the country - New York, Washington State, Michigan - have clamped down hard and are driving numbers down.
Some parts of the country - New York, Washington State, Michigan - have clamped down hard and are driving numbers down.
This is the strategy being pursued by nearly every other wealthy country. And they are largely succeeding. Europe is driving down its numbers while ours have remained pretty steady.
This strategy means a slower and more cautious reopening. And it also requires more meaningful federal leadership on testing, PPE, tracing.
But it could prevent us from seeing another 100,000 Americans dead. And in the long run, a more rapid and durable economic recovery.
But it could prevent us from seeing another 100,000 Americans dead. And in the long run, a more rapid and durable economic recovery.
The choice is ours. The next 100,000 deaths are not inevitable, unless we choose to accept them.
