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HOW did this paper not get desk rejected?
-0.99 headline R^2 is based on regressing SMOOTHED data
-Smoothing used a two-sided LOWESS that could see values from the future
-Time window of smoothing greater than the time lag to response variable
Utterly worthless study.
Ahhh, that would be why. What a fucking worthless profession , they deserve being swarmed by idiot economists claiming they can do better
Someone got a bit tetchy during peer review I see
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Quantian
@quantian1
I am afraid I have played a "jape" upon my followers. The economic indicators you have forecast are used in the derivation of the Kalecki-Levy equation, and taken together they impute corporate profits exactly (not a model, it's the definition)
Based on these numbers, US corporates will see an EBIT of $4 trillion in CY 2020, vs. 2019's $2 trillion EBIT. Amazing, and all the idiots on Wall Street are forecast a huge decline! Not even the most aggressive pro forma numbers have doubled
Feel free to check my work:
+4.7 trillion (average government deficit)
-0.5 trillion (average trade deficit)
-1.6 trillion (average household savings)
+0.9 trillion (average net dividends)
+0.5 trillion (average investment net of depreciation)
_______________________
= 4 trillion
Read 3 tweets
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Quantian
@quantian1
Below will be a series of polls. Please answer them in order. Q4/2019 numbers (SAAR) will be provided for reference, but try and estimate each number independently of it.
In 2020, aggregate US government deficits (federal + state + local, 2019 Q4 annualized number -$1.4 trillion) will be:
In 2020, the current US trade deficit (2019 Q4 annualized number -$500 billion) will be:
Read 6 tweets
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Quantian
@quantian1
Wow that’s a wild crosstab- opposition to a vaccine is far stronger among African-Americans than Republicans apnews.com/dacdc8bc428dd4…
I mean it’s not surprising once you think about it, but boy the Discourse around this has been focusing a lot more on microchips and a lot less on Tuskegee
Phrased slightly differently: Do you have 100.0% confidence that any vaccine approved by the Trump administration prior to the election, given their previous documented record promoting quack treatments, would be safe and effective for you to use?
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