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Callie Cox Profile picture
@callieabost
May 28, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Y’ALL. I’m listening to @ShalaneFlanagan on the @AliOnTheRun1 podcast and she just said her 1-month old son’s middle name is Dean, after...you guessed it, legendary UNC bball coach Dean Smith. #GDTBATH
(Shalane is a Tar Heel, btw)
I’M NOT CRYING YOU’RE CRYING

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More from @callieabost

Callie Cox Profile picture
Aug 10, 2023
🎈THE JULY CPI REPORT🎈

😬Inflation increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in 13 months
🔥 But the details show it's probably a mirage
⛽ Energy prices picked up
⛵But services inflation ex-rent is still right around 3%
🏔This may not force more rate hikes https://t.co/HSx2oiW7N8twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Image
OK...some details:

The increase in headline inflation was mostly from energy prices picking up

Contributions to YOY CPI, per Bloomberg: Image
So those higher gas prices you've noticed?

They're contributing to an increase in CPI.

Higher prices suck, but they're not the type of inflation the Fed cares about these days

This is:
Read 5 tweets
Callie Cox Profile picture
May 16, 2023
How debt ceiling drama could damage your portfolio

(even if we avoid the dreaded default)

⬇⬇⬇ Image
So…we’re weeks away from the X date, or when the government runs out of money to pay its bills and can’t borrow more $

It could be as soon as June 1😬

axios.com/2023/05/15/yel…
The stock market doesn’t seem to care, though

The S&P 500 has gone nowhere over the past month, even though bonds and gold are certifiably freaking out

Look at 1-month yields — up 2 percentage points in a month 👀 Image
Read 17 tweets
Callie Cox Profile picture
Apr 3, 2023
The S&P 500 has risen a year after the last Fed hike in 6 out of the last 9 hiking cycles

What's the common trend when stocks fall after a hiking cycle? ⬇
An economic recession or a market crisis.

Let's start with May 1981.

The Fed stopped hiking, but then immediately had to cut less than a month later because the economy crumbled under the pressure of high rates.

It was the Volcker era of high inflation.
It's also worth mentioning that the S&P 500 was about 5% from a high when the Fed finished hiking.

A recession wasn't rly on people's radars.
Read 9 tweets
Callie Cox Profile picture
Apr 1, 2023
Just finished paying back my student loans 🎉🎉🎉

(no, this is not a cruel April Fools' joke)
I went to UNC on a mix of scholarships, grants and Stafford loans.

Had about $13K in debt at graduation at a 3% interest rate.

Just paid over time and balloon paid the rest today bc the loan's servicer was changing (and I had a little bit left)
TG for good public schools and financial aid.

#goheels
Read 4 tweets
Callie Cox Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023
In this environment, there are two types of bears (in my mind):

😬 Cautious bears (prices look high, but low in stocks may be in)

😱 Doomsday bears (prices look high AND stocks could make new lows)
I'd consider us in the 😬cautious bears😬 camp.

Hopeful the Fed can pull this off without a recession (and so far they are!), but skeptical of the type of rally we've seen YTD.
If you're a 😱doomsday bear😱, you think the Fed *can't* pull this off and that we'll potentially see new lows as the economy tips into recession.

And that's a fair thought: earnings have declined an average of 20% in recessions.

The market isn't braced for this.
Read 11 tweets
Callie Cox Profile picture
Jan 19, 2023
Love waking up to a thread on why SSRIs are just a big pharma scam.

I've been on meds for 6 years now and trust me, no amount of sunshine, money or sleep could've helped me
and TBH I can't tell you how much it sucks to hear ppl say it's a lifestyle thing. the stigma is horrible

So I'll balance it out.

I've had clinical anxiety/depression for most of my life, and it got so bad in adulthood that I had to seek treatment
Mine is a mix of genetics, hormones and awful childhood trauma.

And when I got on meds, I had panic attacks every day. On the floor, couldn't breathe kind of attacks.
Read 7 tweets

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