Thread by @MPPregent

"There are two camps in Washington about policy towards Iraq. The first camp includes Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Anthony Pfaff from the Atlantic Council who recommend patience & helping Kadhimi become independent of Iran."

I know both

I know both @fordrs58 and I respectfully disagree with Tony "Well. that's how Arab Governments operate" and adamantly disagree with Knights - a man who can take a pro-Iran proxy position in Iraq and an anti-one in Yemen.

But let's break this down further.

Knights said this about Maliki, Abadi, AAM, and Knights - he has no credibility with Iraqis out of power.

Pfaff makes a good argument but leaves out Iran's penetration of Iraq's economy, primacy over its security forces by proxy, and command of Baghdad's policies.

"In the second camp in Washington are conservative Republicans such as former Vice President Cheney’s aide John Hannah and Hudson Institute analyst Michael Pregent who urge the Trump administration to present Kadhimi a hard choice."

That's a simple label...

I am a Veteran and former Intelligence Officer with 30 years experience looking at Iraq and Iran.

Being anti-IRGC-QF means I'm a conservative
Republican, anyway… back to the article.

BTW, happy to be with Hannah on this and anytime I'm in the anti-Knights camp - that's great.

Pregent and Hannah believe:

Kadhimi, "must immediately confront and break the PMF and also reduce economic relations with Iran or Washington will answer with more pressure on Iraq immediately."

Yes, you're are correct @fordrs58

This patience & dialogue strategy is a PAUSE-EX.

The Regime and Baghdad believe that the best option is to wait out Trump and get friends in DC to urge the President to make concessions.

They are right to test this strategy - I will get in the way of it.

The President does not need dialogue with Iran before the election...

The President should keep Maximum Pressure in place thru 2020.

If he wins - Iran comes to the table on their knees - they cannot survive another 4 years.

If Biden wins, Biden can negotiate from a position of strength and any return to the JCPOA without concessions by Iran...

will spark serious discussion in DC and force those inside the Biden camp to rework sunrise clauses, regional terrorism, and ballistic missiles.

If Kadhimi were serious about curbing Iran's influence he would ask the U.S. to increase pressure on Iran and help "our partners"...

take on the IRGC-QF militias and shield Iraq's economy from Iranian penetration.

This is a PAUSE-EX for the IRGC-QF and its proxies.

The equivalent of the Taliban refitting and getting ready to conduct new attacks while they stay in Pakistan.

They want a ceasefire - to see...

if Trump wins or loses.

They believe there are election outcomes that favor them - some Americans in D.C. are telling them that.

Our adversaries should not cheer for outcomes they think will benefit them.

The reason for election interference - no U.S. consistency in policy.

"Hannah… recommended D.C. impose sanctions on Iraqi political leaders, & Pregent suggested sanctions against Hadi al-Ameri, Badr Corps & against the Fateh bloc which is the second largest political bloc in the Iraqi parliament."

Yes, For attacking the U.S. & killing protesters.

Yes, @fordrs58 - question… are we in Syria at the invitation of Assad?

We have allies in Iraq - the majority of the country says this parliament and government "do not represent us!"

For the first time, Iraqis from all sects are telling us to stop supporting Iran's proxies...

I argue that we can save Iraq, the 80% that want new elections and "Iraq Hurra -Iran Barra" by disfavoring Baghdad.

Knights and company argue that we should continue to support the Status Quo - that means no new elections, militia primacy, and Iran's theft of Iraqi resources.

It means more deployments, more loss of blood and treasure to continue the handover of Iraq to Iran under the guise of "patience and dialogue"

It's a broken record, a failed strategy, and 80% of Iraqis agree with Hannah and this guy.

That's why you have to counter us here.

We have friends in Iraq, & they are not the ones in power

We can fight ISIS in Iraq and & Syria without permission from either capitol.

The mere threat of Iraq sanctions & U.S. disfavor scares Baghdad & Iran, & energizes Iraqis

Iran needs us to stay naive - SO THEY CAN STAY.

So much more to say... moderate a panel Ambassador between the two camps - make Knights not cancel and run from his analysis.

Knights should be used as a source - not an advocate for U.S. policy.

Ask Knights "what kind of cologne Amiri wears, what are his weaknesses?" He's too

close to the men in power in Baghdad - he can't criticize them without losing access.

I don't have access to them, & I know their weaknesses & their goals.

Ask Mikey what Ameri had for breakfast - not whether the U.S. should attack Kataib Hezb or sanction Badr.

This was fun:)