The most likely detonator for major conflict with China is Taiwan. Hong Kong cannot be viably contested. India can defend itself. Beijing would be foolish to rerun the Korean war. If Taiwan declares independence that might be enough to light the fuse.
The question arises: what if Beijing's actions in Hong Kong precipitates a rush to Taiwanese independence?
Before the pandemic Taiwan had little prospect of support for independence. China was the linchpin of globalism. There was too much to lose. The virus changed all that. What everyone feared to lose has already been lost.
In addition the Chinese Communist Party has become a major political issue in Western capitals, and as the surprising support for a virus origin inquiry shows, even in non-Western capitals.
For the first time in decades Taiwan has a real opportunity to gain independence. The tides of history constantly shift. For some years they were flowing Beijing's way. Now they have turned. For both sides it's -- perhaps -- now or never.
