There is another factor at work in the Taiwanese equation. Their principal shield against invasion used to be Beijijng's massive world trade along the China coast. This shipping stream was too valuable to disrupt in the days before the pandemic.
The slump in trade caused by the pandemic has thinned the shipping shield. The trends which have strengthened its diplomatic case for independence have weakened it's naval position.
Perhaps the most important aspect of this game is the critical first move is China's. The West cannot send troops to Hong Kong. China can. The West cannot invade China. China might invade Taiwan. What Washington can do is signal what it's response to such moves might be.
The strongest signals Washington can send is what the economy does in the coming months and who wins the election in November. Both Taiwan and Beijing may hold off until they receive the signal. In many ways 2020 is the Longest Year.
