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#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases continue to rise, ACTIVE cases are bunching...still a wait and watch situation before we can establish whether we have peaked. 🤞
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases changing?
1) Total cases doubling in 16/15 days based on @WHO /@JHUSystems data sources.
2) Active cases doubling in ~30 days (with large confidence interval)
The CDGR = 10.53%
7 Day Moving Average and deviations:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
1) Total cases in hotspot countries (>100 K cases)
2) Total deaths in hotspot countries (>3000 deaths)
How are countries recovering?
1)France: no peak...but a long plateau.
2)Slow recovery: Spain, Italy
3)Iran- had first peak around 80K, then big 2nd wave, now approaching 160K.
4)Early sings of peak: Russia, India
5)Yet to peak: US, UK, Brazil...their active cases still rising.
1)Not yet peaked: ACTIVE cases continue to rise: US, UK, Brazil
2)No peak but a long plateau: France
3)After peak, now facing second wave: Iran (big), Spain (small)
4)Peaked and successfully lowered infection: Germany, S Korea, Japan, Italy..
5)Early signs of peak: Russia, India
How are ACTIVE cases changing across countries?
1) Rising speed: Egypt, Brazil, S Africa, Sweden, Philippines, Iran, UAE, US, France
2) Slowing in most countries
COVID death rate per million people:
1) Low and rising: India, Japan
2) High and rising: UK, Sweden, US, Canada, Brazil
3) Belgium: v high
4) China: no change. Ever.
How are Indian states doing?
Total cases = Active + Recovered + Deaths
1) You can see states that are plateauing and some seeing second waves.
2) Active cases continue to rise steadily in DL, WB, KA, JK, AS, UK, JH, CT, HP...
Where are NEW case coming from? 5Day Moving averages
1) MH >> DL > TN
2) More than 60% new cases still from hotspots MH, TN, DL, GJ...
3) States seeing their highest ever new cases: TN, DL, JK..
How are ACTIVE cases growing across states?
1) Still speeding: DL (!), WB, HR, TS, JK, AP
2) Slowing down in most other places.
Are states testing enough? PositiveCases/100Tests:
1)MH: with highest infection rate (and rising) does fewer tests than TN but has 3x its number of cases.
2)DL: has 2nd highest infection rate, but 7th highest number of tests.
3)GJ: needs much more CT+T
4) Declining ratio: good.
COVID death rate per million people, across states of India:
1) DL, MH, GJ - MUCH higher death rate than all India average.
2) DL has fewer cases than TN, and nearly 11 times the death rate! @ArvindKejriwal
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