There’s a perfect economic storm gathering, and we’ve got new data that shows just how significant the decision to extend transition or not could be for this country and its businesses.
THREAD:
THREAD:
An in-depth report, produced for us by the independent SMF, looks at the double impact of Covid-19 AND either No Deal or a Free Trade Agreement.
It’s a sobering read.
bestforbritain.org/impactassessme…
It’s a sobering read.
bestforbritain.org/impactassessme…
The idea that the damage from a Dec 31st No Deal exit would be somehow masked by the scale of the coronavirus crisis does not stand up to scrutiny. 
Nationally, the manufacturing, banking, finance and insurance sectors are at particular risk from the combined #CovidBrexit storm.
For context, across the 66 local areas placed in the highest category for exposure to a double hit, 6.9 million jobs are in highly exposed sectors such as manufacturing, banking & finance, hotels & restaurants...
#CovidBrexit
#CovidBrexit
In the North-West, the Midlands and the South. This is definitely not a London-only issue, though London is one of the areas with the most severe exposure risk.
3.2 million London jobs face the greatest impact from coronavirus.
NB: This is not a prediction of job losses, but rather a look at how dependent local areas on high exposed sectors for employment and economic prosperity.
NB: This is not a prediction of job losses, but rather a look at how dependent local areas on high exposed sectors for employment and economic prosperity.
Some more figures: an FTA would increase uncertainty and reduce GDP by an estimated 1.8% (now to 2023).
Ending transition without a deal (WTO rules) would cause very high uncertainty and cut GDP by 2.9%.
Ending transition without a deal (WTO rules) would cause very high uncertainty and cut GDP by 2.9%.
Politically, the double impact could be particularly significant in the so-called Blue Wall seats which Conservatives took from Labour in the General Election.
The new report uses a ‘storm warning’ scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is the most severe risk, to map the combined effects of Covid-19 and both a Free Trade Agreement and a No Deal scenario. With an FTA…
…large areas face a category-2 warning, with parts of the North-West, Midlands and South facing a level-3 alert, and level-4 warnings in London. That is alarming in itself but when we look at a No Deal scenario…
…the picture is deeply disturbing. A No Deal (or WTO) exit, plus Covid-19, leaves almost the entire country facing a level-3 alert, with vast swathes elevated to level 4 and…
…a level 5 warning in the South and North-West. This would damage not just a few households and businesses, it could pose a threat to entire towns, cities and sectors.
The report has much more detail than we can include in a thread – see it at the link below. And remember...
bestforbritain.org/impactassessme…
bestforbritain.org/impactassessme…
...we’ve commissioned this from independent specialists, specifically to avoid any pro-European bias creeping in. Brexit is done but the way we complete our divorce from Europe...
...in the time of Covid-19 will have a real, measurable and potentially disastrous impact on businesses and individuals in this country.
The sensible thing to do is extend our transition period and...
The sensible thing to do is extend our transition period and...
…give the country time to cope with Covid, then time to make arrangements for an exit deal which, lest we forget, is notable only by its absence.
The warnings are there, the clouds are gathering; we ignore them at our peril.
/ends
The warnings are there, the clouds are gathering; we ignore them at our peril.
/ends
