Thread by @FaheemYounus

Thread - 1/ Lockdowns ending

Common narrative:
“COVID cases/deaths are declining, economies are reopening, lockdowns ending. It’s over.”

We underestimated the first wave. And suffered.

Let’s not underestimate the second wave by declaring victory too soon.

Read on...

2/ We are far from achieving herd immunity or conducting mass vaccination

Only 5% to 20% of populations have been exposed in most big cities thus far. See attached

Goal is to get to 60-70% for broad protection

This means a second wave is v. likely

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

3/ That second wave may hit the US before X-mas 2020.

Other countries may get hit at different times.

At present our treatments are weak; our systems fragile. We should remain cautious, yet functional. Careful, yet operational.

4/ What does that look like?

Wear masks, maintain distance, avoid crowds, get tested immediately if you develop ANY new symptoms (not just respiratory system) and isolate yourself if +

65% of the world avoided Spanish flu 100 years ago. Many of us should be able to avoid COVID

5/ So: It’s Ok to restart and reopen. Cautiously. The goal is to minimize risk - not eliminate it.

Let’s live one year carefully so we can enjoy many more years of health, happiness and freedoms afterwards. iA

End/