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All the protesters have to do to win is to observe the curfew and go home. The officer is under arrest. Trump is defeated and in hiding. The governors are appalled at him. But every day this goes on is a day that potentially breaks in Trump’s favor. /1
Trump is desperately hoping that the protests will get worse and that the situation will rise to meet the rhetoric he’s trying to apply to it. Every night that goes on that the protesters continue violence and looting works in his favor. /2
Provocateurs know this, too. They will continue to try to blend in with the legitimate protesters. I hope that the protesters listen to mayors like Mayor Bottoms of Atlanta. What happens next is in their control, not Trump’s. /3x
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
Nearly thirty years ago, I gave a presentation to a group of Soviet military officers on civil-military relations as the USSR was falling apart. I implored them to see the U.S. as an example of how to do it right. /1
I used to give a lecture to our own military officers saying that we were fortunate, along with the UK, to have one of the most stable civil-military relationships in the world. So much so that I took it for granted. /2
I'd be hesitant to give those same talks today, and not just because of Trump. Years of war and a civilian population that thinks the military are gods who can solve anything have been deeply unhealthy. Trump, however, was - like with everything else - gasoline on the fire. /3
Read 5 tweets
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
One of the reasons I am being hard-assed about asking the protesters to observe the curfew and deprive Trump of oxygen is because I know that Trump's entire play in November is to shoot for an Electoral College win and a popular vote loss. It's his only play. /1
When he's standing there waving a Bible, he's taking aim at FL, WI, NC, AZ, even MN and other states, the places where he's hoping to squeeze out the very last drop of the white vote, relying on fear. He wants suburban women and old people to be terrified. That's the play. /2
He couldn't care less if the polls tomorrow have him down to Biden by 15 points, as long as he's up in the demo that will vote (old people) and the demo that can swing against him hard (suburban white women). That's it. That's the whole game right there. /3
Read 4 tweets
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Tom Nichols
@RadioFreeTom
While we wait for Trump to, remember this from the history of confrontations between governments and protesters: Each side has a vested interest in the other side "drawing the foul." Barr is smart, even if Trump isn't; the goal will be to get the protesters to overreact. /1
Protesters - especially on the extremes - often want the government to react and to resort to violence because it emphasizes their message. That usually doesn't work. But it's clear that Trump and Barr are hoping for a pretext for dropping the hammer here. /2
The worst thing the protesters can *to Trump* right now, is ensure that there is no more violence, no more looting. Observe the curfews. This is will suck the oxygen out of Trump's intended wannabe heroics and the calls for military force. They've beaten him. Take the win. /3x
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