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1) Montreal appeared to make its most significant progress to date in controlling the #COVID19 #pandemic on Monday. The numbers are almost too good to be true. In this thread, I will try to explain why we should view the latest figures with a certain degree of skepticism.
2) Throughout the #coronavirus crisis, Quebec has revised its statistics constantly, whether as result of error, a change in methodology or delays in reporting data. On Sunday, for example, the health ministry added 165 #COVID deaths from previous weeks to the provincial tally.
3) In that context, the declaration of only eight #COVID deaths on Monday in Montreal (see below) seems suspiciously low, especially since the daily range for the past two weeks has been in the 20-to-50 range. Undoubtedly, more deaths will be added to this date in the future.
4) On Sunday, authorities recorded a total of 2,720 #COVID fatalities in the province’s network of long-term care centres (CHSLDs). The next day, that tally was lowered to 2,550. It looks like authorities subtracted eight institutions from the list. Why they did I have no idea.
5) On Monday, Lynne McVey, head of the West Island health authority, proclaimed to staff: “Good news today is that our public long-term care facilities are all off the Premier’s red table.” But two CHSLDS on the West Island (one public) were still coded red on Monday’s list.
6) Although the public health department is carrying out more #COVID tests, I spoke with a Montreal nurse on Monday who told me she still hasn’t been tested even though she’s asked repeatedly and despite Health Minister Danielle McCann’s assertion that all health staff would be.
7) So when the city posted 108 #COVID cases on Monday, down by more than a hundred from Sunday, and the lowest in 61 days, something seems off, especially since public gatherings of up to 10 people were allowed 10 days ago and some people are not maintaining #SocialDistancing.
8) Meanwhile, our neighbor to the west, Ontario, is observing a spike in #COVID cases, as the numbers decline in Quebec. Has Quebec truly managed to pull off a stunning turnaround in its handling of the #pandemic after weeks of missteps?
9) Yes, Montreal's trends look good, but we’ll have to wait a while longer to know if they hold. Some nations like New Zealand have brought the #pandemic under control, but it's still on the rise in more than 30 nations, with Iran now experiencing a second wave. End of thread.
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