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1/ Michel Barnier expects the UK to make the first move towards a middle ground this week believing No 10 wants to avoid the narrative talks are failing. His team told EU diplomats they anticipate more engagement on key sticking points. My piece from yesterday and a few thoughts.
2/ More engagement means they expect the UK to start working with them on how their demands can be moulded into compromises, rather than just outright rejecting them. The talks so far have basically been both sides setting out their positions and calling the other's unacceptable.
3/ That may not sound very constructive, but both teams say it has been useful. Negotiators repeatedly laying down positions, asking questions about and clarifying them, and even rowing about them in public helps them get to grips with what's really important to the other side.
4/ But now that process has gone as far as it can. Both sides know they're going to have to move towards each other, but who goes first? To this end Barnier and EU trade chief Phil Hogan issued come get me pleas to UK last week with the clear message 'we'll compromise if you do'.
5/ You can argue showing their hand in this way was, in fact, the first move. Significantly Barnier actually used the word compromise. Brexit watchers will recall how dismissive he was when asked about compromises in the withdrawal phase. This is a whole different negotiation.
6/ So will the British bite? Unsurprisingly UK officials reject the accusation they haven't engaged with the EU's positions on LPF, governance, fisheries etc. They say it's Brussels that has refused to engage with their proposals and is just sticking to its unprecedented demands.
7/ But there are small signs of wiggle room. Contrary to some opinion, and the impression the EU often gives, the UK has accepted there will be LPF provisions. There are in the EU-Canada deal after all. What they dispute is how far-reaching and restrictive the EU's proposals are.
8/ UK accepts non-regression but rejects commitments that would tie its hands on future standards. Much of the public row on LPF has focussed on EU's out there state aid demands which have always looked untenable. EU climbdown on that could create space for UK to up its offer.
9/ Similarly on fisheries it's clear Barnier wants to compromise, even though he's under pressure from coastal states not to. Compromise looks like EU accepting worse access terms, but in return the UK acknowledging EU states need more certainty than annual negotiations provide.
10/ As for governance? UK stresses it's not after a Swiss-style model and wants to keep the 'suite' of separate agreements as low as possible, at around 6-8. It argues the overarching governance model proposed by the EU is only suitable for countries looking to join the bloc.
11/ This issue comes down to trust and may be the trickiest of the Big 3. UK opposes EU plan because it allows cross-retaliation - breaches in one area could be hit with sanctions in another. EU sees UK's approach as an attempt to cherry-pick membership benefits sector-by-sector.
12/ So things may look bad with both sides blaming each other for slowing down progress. But privately officials feel actually things are about where they expected, and it's too early yet for real compromise. That will only happen if/when time pressure creates political impetus.
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