House of Lords #ScienceofCOVID19 inquiry, including modelling experts discussing the science behind the epidemiological models which informed the UK response to #Covid19UK
parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/c3…
Estimated that 20% of hospitalisations in the UK would have acute respiratory distress syndrome, with 15% needing ventilation.
@AlistairHaimes
Neil Ferguson says it's unclear whether BAME is an independent risk factor, or is associated with socio-economic status, lower ability to shield (eg. needing to go to work), and high prevalence of other risk factors in this group.
Early predictions could have been too pessimistic.
Neil Ferguson says social distancing in Sweden has led to a R0 of ~1.
Question is why are we not getting separate R values for different contexts?
Expert witness says a lot more transmission is happening in hospitals and care homes than community
"If we'd done a better job of reducing transmission in hospitals and care homes we would have a little bit more wiggle room in [line broke]"
Witness: Alarmist values early on were about worst case scenario, if we did nothing at all.
He says this also explains higher mortality figures
Transmission will remain flat between now and September.
Moving in to autumn winter is less certain.
Will this improve accuracy of transmission data.
Dr Adam Kucharski: less disruptive control measures can exist with better testing and tracing. Can better understand settings which drive transmission
Ferguson: No, C. File has been released so people can check.
Dr Paul Birrell, Medical Research Council (MRC) Biostatistics Unit
Professor Mark Woolhouse OBE, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh
Prof Woolhouse: during lockdown, deaths in Scotland more than half >80 years old, more than 40% live in care homes
Witness: Initially we were reliant on data from China, but observing Italy may be more useful now.
Woolhouse: if lockdown was going to be 6 months it should have started earlier
Woolhouse: focus on single R is getting it wrong, especially to drive policy. This is the impression, that R is a critical number...
Prof Woolhouse: modelling community is now concerned about is that R could get to e.g. 1.1, we're concerned about a second bump, but not about a second wave
Dr Birrell: R of 1.1 is difficult to detect