This is a fascinating thread. Like the US, Italy had bad outbreaks in early-hit areas and far less impact elsewhere.
Suspect this has mostly to do with the sequencing of when localized outbreaks gain critical mass, vs timing of imposition of country-wide lockdown policies.
Suspect this has mostly to do with the sequencing of when localized outbreaks gain critical mass, vs timing of imposition of country-wide lockdown policies.
The virus does not seed everywhere simultaneously; tends to hit large and globally interconnected regions first, and then spread outward from there.
So lack of NYC/Lombardy type spread in other parts of US/Italy doesn't reflect that places like the US south face less risk.
So lack of NYC/Lombardy type spread in other parts of US/Italy doesn't reflect that places like the US south face less risk.
It probably instead means that those areas were on a delayed curve relative to the initial hotspots - slower to reach critical mass - and lockdown measures were effective in averting explosive outbreak.
IOW the measures weren't overkill; they were effective.
IOW the measures weren't overkill; they were effective.
