Greg Cadger CFP, EA Profile picture
Jun 2, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
From a textbook perspective markets appear completely irrational. Yet, if you look at the options of where to put capital to work what options do you have outside of American markets? You have internal inflows from workers, coupled with external inflows from foreign markets
which are grossly exaggerated because of central bank policies. Thus you chase stocks & real estate to store your "perceived" wealth in these assets. So much money is chasing so few assets you get rapid price growth. The truly perplexing part pertaining to markets is how the
winner & losers are chosen. Why is so much capital flowing into stocks that have current valuations which will take years if not decades to reach a reasonable valuation? , , , , are the most recognizable. It feels like a pendulum has swung & stocks are
chosen not on reasonable valuation metrics but purely on social judgements. This of course causes consternation for financial professionals as it is difficult to ascertain the quality of an investment based "purely on faith based metrics." After all you are responsible to your
investors to explain the logic behind your investment choices. It is a new & scary world for the quants of our profession & I share their fear. #FinTwitt

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More from @CadgerGreg

Oct 3, 2020
Tesla the growth myth. I have seen a multitude of articles, tv pundits, YouTube millennials all gushing over what an incredible quarter Tesla just had by crushing expectations & delivering 139,300 cars while producing 145,036. The hype machine continues to roll on. $tsla $tslaq
Inside I want to chuckle as I realize how easily the masses are manipulated. Elon Musk knows this & his greatest gift is leading lemmings off a financial cliff. Hey give me your money & we will dream about Mars, Hyperloops, appreciating cars & money printing solar panels.
I don't truly desire to meet Elon Musk, I am not a celebrity chaser or glam hunter. Yet, if I did I would high five him (An air high five Corona-Bros) for being the greatest manipulator of easily led people in the history of the world.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 6, 2020
Here we go again with Tesla. A major run-up fueled on pure speculation. Tesla adds Hiromichi Mizuno well known for his dislike of shorts, former manager of a trillion dollar plus Japanese hedge fund. We can assume he has or should have connections with Softbank. $tsla $tslaq
Lo and behold the Japanese investment company turns out to be the primary driver behind the recent stock surge by what appears to be a call buying strategy which is intended to drive algorithmic trading & stock purchases to artificially drive the price up on what is a very small
float for a company the size of Tesla. Register rings for Elon who has been rewarded continuously for pumping his stock without repercussions & who anyone with a basic understanding of accounting knows manipulates the hell out of his financials ad-nauseam.
Read 17 tweets
Sep 4, 2020
Today made me much more comfortable with the market and my overall strategies. It is an uncomfortable feeling running a long/short strategy and not being able to have a reasonable portion allocated short. Noticed the wobble in the big tech names on Friday that spilled into this
week so I was able to go short the stock & via long-dated puts yesterday. Stayed long but reduced & went short via long-dated puts . Today I added and via puts & was already short pre-earnings . I went short last week & have stayed short
for around the last month. Also been short via long-dated puts. Tomorrow will be interesting. Both the S&P & Nasdaq hit the 20 day & stopped. I expect a bounce is possible & then a trend downward. Way to much liquidity & leverage brought us to this point let's see if
Read 6 tweets
Aug 31, 2020
I have been a lifelong Dodger, Lakers and Rams fan. Sports have been an integral part of my life. High school sports were the primary incentives for me to bring my butt to school and to get myself through high school and eventually into college. If what is happening in sports
doesn't shock and scare you, you are wearing blinders. These sports figures are celebrating chaos, the denigration of our nation and our constitution. Drew Brees speaks up and he was forced into an apology. Brian Urlacher speaks up and he is quieted and disowned by the Bears.
Advertisers pull contract deals from athletes that don't step into line. The Chinese communist party can successfully threaten the NBA for speaking out for the freedom of those in Hong Kong and the NBA acquiesces. Like it or not many of our youth who don't understand that Lebron
Read 6 tweets
Jul 30, 2020
So the fed creates reserves for the banks who then lend out these reserves which were created from nothing to banks. Banks lend it to you the average Joe and charge you interest. Banks lend like crazy because the interest is their drug & like every addict they get reckless.
Their addiction causes them to create more loans, putting the country awash with fabricated dollars & crushing the purchasing power of the same average Joe who is busting his hump making a living. When it collapses every decade or so good ole Uncle Sam bails out these reckless
white collar crooks using taxpayer dollars while not requiring the banks to pay for their mess out of their profits. Uncle Sam does this under the guise of capitalism by using socialism, creating even more money, crushing the purchasing power of average Joe even more by flooding
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29, 2020
Interesting thought to myself as I review another fictional work titled Tesla's 10-Q. Ok, we all know Tesla's accounting practices are intended to intentionally misstate the true financial picture. Tesla is not generating profits from operations. The subsidies are
pulled forward to overstate net income with the intention of manufacturing profits. Costs are recognized when convenient, not always when incurred & most of the time not where they should be recognized. Is this wrong even fraudulent?! Hell yes it is.
Is it wrong that Elon Musk has become one of the richest men in the world from taxpayer subsidies. Hell yes even more emphatically! Yet, let's face reality . Musk is bullet proof & untouchable. Life isn't fair.
Read 8 tweets

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